气候变化下雄安新区洪涝灾害的风险评估及适应措施  

Risk evaluation for flood waterlogging disasters in the Xiongan New Area under climate change

作　　者：盛广耀[1] 廖要明 扈海波 SHENG Guang-yao;LIAO Yao-ming;HU Hai-bo(Thinktank for Eco-Civilization Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Division of Ecological Clmate Assessment,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;Unban Climate and Ecology Development Research Center,Institute of Urban Meteorology,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院生态文明研究智库,北京100732 [2]国家气候中心生态气候评估部,北京100081 [3]北京城市气象研究院城市气候与生态发展研究中心,北京100089

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2020年第6期40-52,共13页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划资助课题“雄安新区气候变化风险评估及三生适应模式研究”(批准号:2018YFA0606304)。

摘　　要：洪涝灾害是雄安新区规划建设重点考虑的问题。特别是在气候变化的趋势下,未来雄安新区是否会发生历史上曾多次出现的严重洪涝,为社会各界所关注。本文通过整理地方历史文献中的洪涝灾害记录,建立雄安新区1949—2018年洪涝灾害灾情数据集,分析了过去70年洪涝灾害事件及其影响等级的时空变化特征。结合1960年以来的降水观测数据,利用logit估计方法,分析了不同时期各种影响因素对于洪涝灾害发生及灾害等级的边际效应,评估了未来气候变化的极端降水增量情景下,雄安新区内涝灾害事件及高等级洪涝发生的风险。研究发现:①雄安新区最近70年有39年发生过洪涝灾害。但从时间变化特征看,自20世纪80年代以后洪涝灾害的发生频率和灾情等级显著降低。从空间分布特征看,发生频次最高的安新县平均2年发生1次,最低的容城县平均10年发生1次。②日最大降水量(或连续最大降水量)、主汛期降水量是影响洪涝灾害发生的最重要降水指标。水利设施对控制洪涝灾害发生的效果显著,地形因素的影响也十分明显。而因洪致灾是导致高等级洪涝灾害事件发生的决定性因素。③在现有水利设施条件下,安新县遭受现50年一遇(177 mm)、雄县遭受100年一遇(208 mm)日最大降水时就可能发生内涝灾害,起步区所在的容城县即使现日降水极值再增加30%,也不大可能发生。④本地极端强降水不足以导致高等级洪涝灾害的发生。只有在发生洪水致灾的同时,当日极端降水强度增加15%(300 mm)以上时,有县域会发生2级及以上洪涝灾害;当主汛期降水量达到355 mm以上时,则可能有县域会发生3级及以上洪涝灾害。本文最后讨论了雄安新区应对洪涝灾害的建设适应措施。Flood waterlogging disasters are a major concern in the planning and construction of the Xiongan New Area,which has been attacked by several severe flood and waterlogging disasters in history.Therefore,it is a great issue of concern for the society especially under the circumstance of climate change.This article collected the local historical records for flood and waterlogging disasters and set up a data set of flood waterlogging disasters of the Xiongan New Area from 1949 to 2018.The flood waterlogging disaster events and their consequences along with the features of change in time and space during the past 70 years were further analyzed.Based on the rainfall observation data since 1960 and by means of logit estimation,the article analyzed the marginal effect of various influence factors on the occurrence of flood waterlogging disasters and the disaster grade.It also evaluated the risk of flood waterlogging disasters and high-grade disasters in the Xiongan New Area under extreme rainfall conditions in the future.The study found that:①Xiongan New Area experienced flood waterlogging disasters in 39 of the past 70 years.However,from the time change perspective,the frequency and the disaster level of flood waterlogging disasters showed a significant drop since the 1980s.From the perspective of space distribution,Anxin County with the highest frequency was disaster-stricken once every two years,and Rongcheng County with the lowest frequency once every ten years.②The daily maximum rainfall(or consecutive maximum rainfall)and the rainfall in the main flood period are the most important rainfall indicators affecting the occurrence of flood waterlogging disasters.Water conservancy facilities have significant effects on controlling the occurrence of flood waterlogging disasters,so do the topographical factors.And the flood-caused disaster is the decisive factor leading to the occurrence of severe flood waterlogging disasters.③By virtue of current water conservancy facilities,Anxin County may face the waterlogging ha

关 键 词：雄安新区 洪涝灾害 风险评估 历史文献 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]