组合体航天器的PRA技术应用趋势分析  

Analysis of PRA Technology Application Trend of Combined Spacecraft

作　　者：周昊澄 杨宏[1] 侯永青[1] 夏侨丽 ZHOU Hao-cheng;YANG Hong;HOU Yong-qing;XIA Xiao-li(Institute of Manned Space Engineering,China Academy of Space Technology,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]中国空间技术研究院载人航天总体部,北京100094

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2020年第6期45-48,64,共5页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：组合体航天器具有高可靠性、小字样的工程特点,为解决组合体航天器风险评估工作中遇到的试验及在轨数据不足的难题,提出应用概率风险评估(PRA)技术对组合体航天器进行风险评估,以满足组合体航天器这类复杂大系统的风险评估需求。结合组合体航天器的工作特点,对定性、定量、综合性评估方法进行了对比分析。并以组合体航天器控推系统融合性设计为例,详细分析了PRA技术应用的基本流程。通过相对评估方法对比了组合体航天器特有的融合性设计对系统可靠性的贡献,充分验证了PRA技术适用于组合体航天器的风险评估工作。Combinatorial spacecraft has the characteristics of high reliability and small size.In order to solve the problem of insufficient test and on-orbit data in risk assessment of combined spacecraft.In this paper,probabilistic risk assessment(PRA)technology is proposed to assess the risk of composite spacecraft to meet the risk assessment needs of complex large-scale systems such as composite spacecraft.In this paper,the qualitative,quantitative and comprehensive evaluation methods are compared and analyzed according to the working characteristics of combined spacecraft.The basic process of PRA technology application is analyzed in detail by taking the integrated design of control and propulsion system of combined spacecraft as an example.The relative evaluation method is used to compare the contribution of the fusion design to the system reliability,which fully verifies that PRA technology is suitable for the risk assessment of the combined spacecraft.

关 键 词：组合体航天器 小子样 概率风险评估 融合性设计 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]