“新冠”肺炎疫情的经济影响、应对策略与疫情后的新变化  

The Economic Impact,Coping Strategies and New Changes after the COVID-19

作　　者：石凯[1] SHI Kai(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130017,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济与管理学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《东北师大学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第4期35-44,共10页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社科基金专项(18VSJ045);东北师范大学哲学社会科学校内青年基金团队项目(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)(18QT002)。

摘　　要：2020年1月下旬起,一场由新型冠状病毒引发的肺炎疫情席卷全球,迄今不仅造成数百万人感染,更引发全球金融海啸和经济动荡。预估“新冠”肺炎疫情对中国经济的影响,并采取适当政策对冲疫情冲击,对于“十三五”时期顺利实现党的十八大提出的第一个百年目标,意义重大。然而,以“非典”疫情时期的历史经验简单类推“新冠”肺炎疫情的经济影响是不可取的。合理的做法是通过分析疫情对供给侧和需求侧的冲击展开。COVID-19全球大流行将显著拖累中国经济,疫情持续时间越长,对中国经济的冲击越大。日度经济状况指数显示,“新冠”肺炎疫情的冲击是短期的。为应对疫情冲击,可以考虑在现行政策基础上适时启动深度性产业保护政策,通过向低收入群体发放消费券等方式激发消费潜力。缓疫阶段,围绕“再工业化”的“新基建”将成为高质量发展阶段推动全要素生产率增长的主线,以“互联网+”及平台经济为代表的数字经济新业态将进一步崛起。与此同时,卫健委的权力大概率会出现扩张。Since late January 2020,a pneumonia epidemic caused by a new coronavirus has swept the world.It has not only caused hundreds of thousands of infections,but also caused a global financial tsunami and economic turmoil.Predicting the impact of the COVID-19 on China s economy and adopting appropriate policies to hedge against the epidemic will be of great significance for the successful realization of the first 100-year goal proposed by the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party during the“13th Five-Year Plan”period.However,it is not advisable to simply analogize the economic impact of the COVID-19 based on the historical experience during the SARS.A reasonable approach is to analyze the impact of the epidemic on the supply and demand sides.The global pandemic of COVID-19 will significantly drag on the Chinese economy.The longer the epidemic lasts,the greater the impact exists on the Chinese economy.The daily economic situation index shows that the impact of the COVID-19 is short-term.In order to cope with the impact of the epidemic,we can consider initiating in-depth industrial protection policies on the basis of current policies,and stimulating consumption potential by issuing consumer coupons to low-income groups.During the epidemic prevention stage,the“new infrastructure”surrounding“re-industrialization”will become the main line for promoting the growth of total factor productivity in the high-quality development stage,and the new digital economy format represented by“Internet+”and platform economy will rise further.At the same time,there is a high probability that the power of the Health and Safety Commission will expand.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 经济影响 实时经济状况指数 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]