农民粮食生产积极性的测度分析  

Measurement of Farmers'Enthusiasm for Grain Production

作　　者：辛毅[1] 李佳鑫 程超越 XIN Yi;LI Jiaxin;CHENG Chaoyue(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Personal Finance Department of Shijingshan subbranch of Beijing Branch of Agricultural Bank of China,Beijing 100043,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [2]中国农业银行北京市分行石景山支行个人金融部,北京100043

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2020年第3期30-41,共12页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目(18YJA790089)。

摘　　要：通过构建农民粮食生产积极性理论模型,分析影响农民粮食生产积极性主要因素及影响机制,使用结构方程模型实证研究农民粮食生产积极性主要影响因素,并根据各主要影响因素作用程度排序,以期发现中国农民产生与发展粮食积极性的特有规律,为提高农民粮食积极性提供有益参考。研究表明,粮食托市收购政策体系对农民粮食生产积极性产生关键性积极作用,农民粮食生产经营决策行为特征类似于企业等生产经营主体,主要根据粮食生产经营成本效益类指标决定是否开展粮食生产经营。基于此,提出推进建设具有强大整体国际竞争力的国家粮食产业体系,以利于形成具有长期稳定利好期望的国内粮食收购市场,至少在口粮方面长期实施以最低粮食收购价格和临时收储为主要内容的粮食托市收购政策体系。A theoretical model of the farmers'enthusiasm for grain production was constructed to analyze the main factors affecting the farmers'enthusiasm for grain production and its influencing mechanisms.A structural equation model was used to conduct an empirical study on the main influencing factors of farmers'enthusiasm for grain production and to rank the above factors according to their degrees of effects.The purpose was to discover the unique law of the emergence and development of Chinese farmers'enthusiasm for grain production,which will provide useful references for the practical work on improving farmers'enthusiasm for grain production.The results were shown as the followings:grain purchase market policy system had key positive effect on farmers'enthusiasm for grain production,the characteristics of farmers'grain production and operation decisions were similar to those of business entities,such as enterprises,farmers mainly decided whether to carry out grain production and operation based on the costeffectiveness indicators.For this situation,solutions were proposed,including promoting the construction of a national grain industry system with strong overall international competitiveness,facilitating the formation of a domestic grain purchase market with long-term stability and favorable expectations,implementing a long-term grain procurement policy system with the minimum grain purchase price and temporary collection and storage as its main contents.

关 键 词：粮食生产积极性 粮食安全 主观意愿 行为表现 实际效果 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]