双边货币互换协议与跨境贸易人民币结算——基于资本账户约束视角的实证研究  

Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements and RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement——An Empirical Study from the Perspective of Capital Account Constraints

作　　者：邓富华[1] 杨甜婕[2] 霍伟东[3] DENG Fuhua;YANG Tianjie;HUO Weidong

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学国际商学院四川自贸试验区综合研究院 [2]西南财经大学金融学院 [3]西南财经大学国际商学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2020年第6期160-174,共15页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“人民币跨境结算的制度约束、交易者认知偏差及贸易效应研究”(71903161);教育部人文社科规划青年项目“人民币跨境金融交易的机理及路径研究”(18YJC790022)。

摘　　要：2008年以来,我国对外签订的双边货币互换协议是一种不局限于应急保障功能的"新型"金融工具。基于资本账户约束视角,本文构建2009—2014年中国对168个结算国或地区的跨国面板数据,实证考察双边货币互换协议对跨境贸易人民币结算的影响。结果显示:双边货币互换协议有利于促进跨境贸易人民币结算;当结算国或地区的资本账户开放度高于中国时,双边货币互换协议有利于扩大跨境贸易人民币结算;当结算国或地区的货币自由度高于中国时,结算国或地区的货币自由有利于双边货币互换协议通过突破资本账户约束来促进跨境贸易人民币结算。现阶段我国既要适度扩大本外币互换规模,也要侧重与资本账户开放度、货币自由度较高的国家或地区签署本外币互换协议,以弥补我国制度缺失,进而扩大人民币跨境使用范围。Since 2008,the bilateral currency swap agreement(BCSA)signed by China has become a"new"financial instrument,the function of which is no longer limited to emergency protection.From the perspective of capital account constraints,we examined the influence of the BCSA on RMB cross-border trade settlement by using a panel data of China and 168 RMB settlement countries or areas from 2009 to 2014.We come to conclusion:BCSA is conducive to promoting RMB cross-border trade settlement;BCSA can expand RMB settlement of cross-border trade only if the openness degree of capital account of settlement countries or areas is higher than that of China;when the currency freedom of the settlement countries or areas is higher than that of China can currency freedom of settlement countries or areas help BCSA promote RMB cross-border trade settlement by breaking through capital account constraints.At the present stage,in order to make up for the lack of institutions in China and expand RMB cross-border trade settlement,we should appropriately expand the scale of the BCSA and also sign the BCSA with countries or areas having a higher degree of capital account openness and currency freedom than that of China.

关 键 词：货币互换协议 跨境贸易 人民币结算 资本账户约束 货币自由 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]