中国富士系苹果主产区花期模拟与分布  

Simulation and Distribution of Flower Stage in Main Production Areas of Fuji Apple in China

作　　者：柏秦凤 霍治国[2,3] 王景红 梁轶 BAI Qin-feng;HUO Zhi-guo;WANG Jing-hong;LIANG Yi(Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crops,Xi’an 710014,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]陕西省农业遥感与经济作物气象服务中心,西安710014 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2020年第7期423-435,共13页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：重大自然灾害监测预警与防范重点专项(2017YFC1502801);中国气象局2019年度国内外作物产量气象预报专项“全国苹果始花期预报技术研究”。

摘　　要：在中国富士系苹果的5个主产区,分别选取花期资料系列较长的山东福山(环渤海湾产区)、河南三门峡(黄河故道产区)、甘肃西峰(黄土高原产区)、云南昭通(西南冷凉高地产区)和新疆阿克苏(新疆产区)作为代表站,利用SPSS统计软件,分析和筛选影响苹果花期的气象要素,构建富士系苹果的花期模拟模型;采用平均绝对误差(MAE)和分级加权满分率计分评判法对模型进行检验,并用代表站周边12个站点的物候观测资料对模型进行外延检验;在此基础上,逐站逐年模拟中国苹果主产区416个气象站1981-2018年富士系苹果始花期和末花期。结果表明:代表站苹果花期模拟模型单站检验满分率66.7%~100.0%,平均绝对误差0.4~3.4d,外延检验平均绝对误差1.2~5.1d。1981-2018年中国不同产区富士系苹果花期时间差异大,并呈提前变化的趋势,提前变化分界点在1997年前后;代表站平均始花期最早与最晚相差27.0d,平均末花期最早与最晚相差18.0d;始花期提前变化幅度1.6~4.5d·10a-1,末花期提前变化幅度1.2~3.8d·10a-1。中国富士系苹果花期空间分布特征表现为由南向北逐渐推迟,平均始花期从西南冷凉高地的3月中旬向北逐渐推迟至环渤海湾产区北部的4月下旬,平均末花期从西南冷凉高地的4月上旬向北逐渐推迟至环渤海湾产区北部的5月上旬。In the five main production areas of Fuji apple in China,Fushan(in Shandong province and belongs to the Around Bohai bay production area),Sanmenxia(in Henan province and belongs to the old Yellow River production area),Xifeng(in Gansu province and belongs to the Loess Plateau production area),Zhaotong(in Yunnan province and belongs to the southwest cold highland production area),Akesu(in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and belongs to the Xinjiang production area)were selected as representative sites.Using SPSS statistical software,the meteorological factors affecting Fuji apple flowering were analyzed and screened,and the flowering simulation models of Fuji apple were constructed.The mean absolute error(MAE)and graded weighted full score method were used to test the models,and the epitaxial test of the models were carried out by using the phenological observation data of 12 sites around the representative sites.On this basis,using the meteorological data of 416 sites in China’s apple production areas from 1981 to 2018,the first and terminal flower of Fuji apple were simulated year by year.The results showed that,the full scores of single site tested were 66.7%-100.0%,the mean absolute errors(MAE)were 0.4-3.4 d,and the MAE of epitaxial tests were 1.2-5.1 d.From 1981 to 2018,the flower stages of Fuji apple in China have three characteristics:large time difference,early change trend,and the dividing point of early change around 1997.Zhaotong’s average first flower was the earliest,at 82.0 d(March 21),Xifeng’s average first flower was the latest,at the 109.0 d(April 19),with a difference of 27.0 d.Zhaotong’s average terminal flower was the earliest too,at 101.0 d(April 11),Xifeng’s average terminal flower was the latest too,at 119.0 d(April 29),with a difference of 18.0 days.The early change range of Fuji Apple’s first flower,in Zhaotong was 4.5 d·10 y-1,which was the largest,and in Fushan was 1.6 d·10 y-1,which was the smallest.The early change range of Fuji apple’s terminal flower,in Zhaotong was 3

关 键 词：苹果主产区 富士苹果 始花期 末花期 花期模拟 

分 类 号：S661.1[农业科学—果树学] S165.2[农业科学—园艺学]