财政分权、政府公共支出与居民消费  

Fiscal Decentralization, Government Public Expenditure and Household Consumption

作　　者：耿申 GENG Shen(School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学经济学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《统计学报》2020年第3期14-27,共14页Journal of Statistics

摘　　要：利用中国1978-2017年的时间序列数据研究了政府公共支出与居民消费的关系,并以1994年分税制改革为界限,分阶段建立计量模型进行验证。研究表明,政府公共支出的短期波动会引起居民消费的负向响应,长期二者存在正向均衡关系。"大包干"时期中央政府和地方政府的公共支出均与居民消费呈现替代关系,分税制时期中央政府公共支出对居民消费没有显著影响,地方政府公共支出能够促进居民消费。In this paper, China’s time series data from 1978 to 2017 were used to analyze the relationship between government public expenditure and household consumption. And after setting the tax sharing reform in 1994 as the boundary, we established phased econometric models to verify the research. The results showed that, the short-term fluctuations in public expenditure would cause the negative response from household consumption, so there was a long-term positive equilibrium between them. In "all-round contract" period, there was a substitutional relationship between the public expenditure of the central government and local governments and household consumption. And in the periods implementing tax sharing system, the public expenditure of the central government had no obvious relation with household consumption, while the public expenditure of local governments had promoted household consumption.

关 键 词：政府公共支出 财政分权 均衡增长 居民消费 分税制改革 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]