经济新常态、人口红利衰减与经济增长  

Economic New Normal, Demographic Dividend Declining and Economic Growth

作　　者：韩秀兰[1] 赵敏 HAN Xiu-lan;ZHAO Min(School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《统计学报》2020年第3期28-37,共10页Journal of Statistics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BTJ012);国家统计局一般项目(2017LY92)。

摘　　要：构建由劳动生产率、劳动参与率、人口红利和人口规模因子所共同决定的经济增长综合指数,并基于对数平均D氏指数法,从全国和八大经济区域两个层面分阶段研究各因子对经济增长的影响,揭示了中国人口红利与经济增长间的关系及其区域异质性。在新常态下,所有区域的人口红利衰减都表现出了对经济增长的抑制效用,其中东北地区面临着人口红利和人口规模缩减的双重挑战,东部沿海、南部沿海和大西北地区则面临着人口红利和劳动生产率下降的双重抑制效应。This paper firstly constructed the composite index of economic growth determined by labor productivity, labor participation rate, demographic dividend and population size factor, and then applied the LMDI method to study the impact of these factors on economic growth from the aspects of national level and regional level, which reflected the relationship between China demographic dividend and economic growth, as well as reginal heterogeneity. Under the background of new normal, the demographic dividend declining in all regions restrained economic growth. Moreover, the Northeast region was facing the dual challenges from demographic dividend declining and population size shrinkage, while eastern coastal regions, southern coastal regions and the Northwest region were all facing the double obstructions from demographic dividend and labor productivity declining.

关 键 词：经济新常态 人口红利衰减 经济增长路径 经济增长综合指数 对数平均D氏指数法 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]