群体性事件的效应分析  

An Analysis of the Impact of Collective Protests

作　　者：肖唐镖[1,2] Xiao Tangbiao

机构地区：[1]南京大学公共事务与地方治理研究中心,南京210023 [2]南京大学政府管理学院,南京210023

出　　处：《上海行政学院学报》2020年第4期24-33,共10页The Journal of Shanghai Administration Institute

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“社会转型时期的群体性事件研究”(05BSH009);国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国公民政治价值观的实证研究”(16AZZ003)的研究成果。

摘　　要：借助群体性事件大样本数据库的分析,系统地测量了其后果与效应。在有明确信息的群体性事件案例中,完全达成与部分达成直接目标的案例比例近6成,造成人财物伤亡和损失的案例占总数的37.43%,小部分案例导致当地政府官员受处理。还有小部分群体性事件产生了政策调整与体制创新、政法管理体制改革、民众处境改善、以及促进经济发展与社会秩序等溢出效应。回归分析表明,维权行动的成败并不取决于行动者的身份差异与规模,但行动方式会影响到行动直接目标的达成,暴力的使用无助于维权行动的成功。民众“闹”得越大、越激烈和暴力化,或许给与政府限制、打击并否定其诉求以合法性。Based on a large-N database,this paper systematically measures the consequences and the impacts of collective protests in China.For the cases with complete information,around 60%achieve their direct goals completely or partially,37.43%cause personal injuries or financial losses,and a small proportion result in the punishments of local government officials.In addition,another small proportion of collective protests generate positive spillovers to local government's policy adjustment and institutional innovation,reform on the governing system of politics and law,improvement on citizens'living circumstances and local economic development,as well as maintaining social order,etc..The regression results indicates that the success of civil rights safeguarding is not associated with actors'identity and the scale of actions.However,the action pattern influences whether the desired goals would be realized-violence is not conductive to the success of civil rights protection.The government would be more repressive towards the mass incidents which are larger,more radical,and more violent,because it can make the use of the legitimacy of maintaining security and stability to deny protestors'demand.

关 键 词：群体性事件 直接后果 溢出效应 维权方式 

分 类 号：D631.4[政治法律—政治学]