Characteristics and future projections of summer extreme precipitation in Sichuan Province, China  

作　　者：YANG Xian-yu ZHANG Shao-bo LYU Ya-qiong ZHAO Yong LYU Shi-hua 

机构地区：[1]Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu,610225,China [2]Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province,Chengdu,610447,China [3]Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu,610041,China

出　　处：《Journal of Mountain Science》2020年第7期1696-1711,共16页山地科学学报（英文）

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant no.41975130,41875102);the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(2020JDJQ0050);the Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province(grant no.SZKT201804);the Key Project of Education Office of Sichuan Province(grant no.18ZA0095);the Scientific Research Foundation of Chengdu University of Information Technology(grant no.KYTZ201737)。

摘　　要：Based on the precipitation data observed by stations and data simulated by 23 CMIP5 models,the features and future changes of summer(Jun-JulAug)extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Province of China were analysed.We found that the total precipitation(RSum),extreme precipitation threshold(Threshold90),extreme precipitation(TR90),extreme precipitation percentage(TR90 pct)and extreme precipitation intensity(TR90 str)decreased from the southeast to the northwest in Sichuan Province,reflecting the differences between eastern Sichuan(ESC,basins)and western Sichuan(WSC,mountains).Compared with the observations,most of the CMIP5 models showed that there were wet biases in WSC and an unclear bias pattern in ESC for the RSum,Threshold90,TR90,and TR90 str.However,the extreme precipitation days(ND90)and TR90 pct values simulated by the models were generally overestimated and underestimated,respectively.Compared with the historical period,most models showed obvious increases in the TR90 and TR90 pct in the 21 century,while the characteristics of Rsum,ND90,and TR90 str were inconspicuous.Compared with the mid-21 st century,the extreme precipitation in the late-21 st century exhibited a certain degree of increase.Even during the same period,the results of RCP8.5 were higher than those of RCP4.5,especially for the ND90,TR90,and TR90 pct.

关 键 词：Extreme precipitation Precip Nation threshold CMIP5 Representative concentration pathways 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]