全球价值链分工对国际经济周期协同性的影响研究  

Impact of Global Value Chain Division on Business Cycle Synchronization

作　　者：张支南[1] 浦正宁[2] 李明 Zhang Zhinan;Pu Zhengning;Li Ming(Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;School of Economics and Management Southeast University,Nanjing 210000,China;Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank,Chongqing 400023,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京100732 [2]东南大学经济管理学院,南京211189 [3]重庆农村商业银行股份有限公司,重庆400023

出　　处：《技术经济》2020年第5期116-124,共9页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：2019年度中央高校基本业务费项目“大数据方法与宏观经济运行预警体系研究”(242019S20017);2018年度江苏省社科基金重大项目“双向开放与江苏开放型经济高质量发展”(18ZD005)。

摘　　要：为考察全球价值链分工的宏观经济效应,本文基于2000-2014年全球102个经济体相关数据,探究了全球价值链贸易对国际经济周期协同性的影响。结果表明,全球价值链贸易深化了国际垂直型分工,显著提升了国际经济周期的协同性;无论是制造业还是服务业价值链贸易,对国际经济周期协同性都具有显著正向影响,侧面反映出服务业也在越来越深入地融入全球分工体系;价值链贸易对国际经济周期协同性的影响效应主要体现于发展中与发达经济体之间,发达经济体之间的经济周期协同性受其影响并不明显。To fully understand global value chain(GVC)’s macroeconomic effect,this paper explores the impact of global value chain on international business cycle synchronization based on the data of 102 countries from 2000 to 2014.The results show that trade through GVC has greatly enhanced international vertical division and generates positive impact on the international business cycle synchronization significantly.Whether manufacturing or service industries,has shown a significant and positive impact on international business cycle synchronization,indicating service industry has more and more deeply integrated into the global labor division system.The effect of GVC trade on the international business cycle synchronization is mainly founded between developing and developed economies,while not significant between developed economies.

关 键 词：全球价值链 经济周期协同 价值链参与度 马尔科夫区制转换模型 

分 类 号：F746.11[经济管理—国际贸易]