考虑避让行为的人员疏散元胞自动机模型研究  

Study on Evacuation Cellular Automaton Model Considering Avoidance Behavior

作　　者：宋英华[1,2,3] 张宇 霍非舟[1,2,3] 吕伟 马亚萍 Song Yinghua;Zhang Yu;Huo Feizhou;LüWei;Ma Yaping(China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Early Warning and Emergency Response Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]安全预警与应急联动技术湖北省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430070 [3]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2020年第6期975-981,共7页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51808422,51604204);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2019IVB005)。

摘　　要：为研究避让行为在疏散过程中起到的作用,建立了一种考虑避让行为的元胞自动机模型。模型把疏散人员分为避让者和被让者,通过改变人员的被选概率体现避让行为;通过仿真分析避让行为在不同人员比例、不同人员初始位置分布等情况下,避让行为对疏散效率及疏散进程的影响。研究表明:避让行为能够优化人员的疏散顺序,提高疏散效率,并减少疏散过程的危险性;避让概率超出临界值时疏散时间明显减少,且人群密度越大临界值越小;被让者比例较小时,避让行为的效果较好,且避让概率越大效果越显著;避让行为在被让者初始位置分布不同的情况有不同的影响。To study the avoidance behavior in the evacuation process,a cellular automaton model considering avoidance behavior is established.The model divides the evacuees into avoiders and transferees,and reflects the avoidance behavior by changing the selected probability of evacuees.The impact of the avoidance behavior on the efficiency and evacuation process in different personnel ratios and different initial positions is analyzed.The results show that the avoidance behavior can optimize the evacuation sequence,improve the evacuation efficiency and reduce the risk of evacuation process.The evacuation time is significantly reduced when the probability of avoidance exceeds the thread value,and the larger the population density is,the smaller the threshold value becomes.When the transferee ratio is small,the effect of avoidance behavior is better,and the greater the probability of avoidance is,the more significant the effect becomes.The avoidance behaviors have different effects when the transferees are at different initial positions.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 避让行为 疏散模拟 人员比例 位置分布 

分 类 号：X956[环境科学与工程—安全科学]