金融发展和危机传染:基于“法与金融”的研究视角  

Financial Development and Crisis Contagion:Based on the Perspective of Law and Finance

作　　者：游家兴[1] 张哲远 You Jiaxing;Zhang Zheyuan(School of Management,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学管理学院 [2]厦门大学管理学院财务学系

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2020年第6期3-13,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“中国制度和文化背景下公司财务政策的理论与实践研究”(71790601);国家自然科学基金面上项目“媒体有偏报道动机、行为与经济后果研究——基于公司治理的视角”(71872157);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“财务会计软性信息与资本市场——基于文本分析的研究视角”(20720181005)资助。

摘　　要：金融发展促进经济增长是传统金融发展理论的经典观点。然而,在世界各国的金融发展实践过程中,金融体系的脆弱性日益显现,金融危机发生的频率明显增加,金融危机的传染效应逐渐增大。这些始料不及的负面冲击引发了学术界的广泛探讨和深刻反思:金融发展是福祉,还是诅咒?本文以1991—2013年为研究窗口,对中国独立样本展开深入考察,对全球十个主要经济体展开跨市场比较分析。研究发现,金融危机的传染性和连锁性已成为全球经济发展的共同特征,它会随着各个国家和地区金融发展的演进过程表现出逐步放大的趋势。其中,以投资者法律保护为主要构件的制度框架彰显了其不可或缺的重要意义。进一步的实证发现,在投资者法律保护较好的国家和地区,金融危机的传染效应不仅能得到有效的阻隔,并且因金融发展所引发的危机传染放大效应也将得到积极的遏制。正所谓"工欲善其事,必先利其器",我国不应过度追求金融的快速发展,而应把金融发展纳入完善的制度框架下,打造好制度之利器,才能去芜存菁、截长补短,最终实现金融发展与经济增长的同生共荣。Financial development promotes economic growth, which is the classical view of financial development theory. However, in the world’s process of financial development practice, the fragility of financial system is increasingly presented, the frequency of the financial crisis significantly accelerates, and the contagion effect of financial crisis gradually increases. All of these unexpected negative shocks together have triggered extensive discussions and deep reflections in academia:is financial development a welfare or a curse?In this paper, the DCC-MGARCH model is used to capture the correlation among asset prices in different markets, and the obtained dynamic time-varying correlation coefficients between markets are used as dependent variables, while the multiplicative term of the dummy variable and the level of financial development during the financial crisis is the main explanatory variable. The econometric regression model gradually tests the following questions. Firstly, are there contagion effects of financial crises in various countries or regions?Secondly, what role do the financial development process and investor legal protection play in the contagion effect of the financial crises?Finally, what role does the legal protection of investors play in the relationship between financial development and crisis contagion?The result suggests that the contagious and chain nature of financial crises has become a common feature of global economic development, and it will show a gradual amplification with the evolution of financial development in various countries or regions. Among them, the institutional framework with investor legal protection as the main component highlights its indispensable importance. Further empirical findings show that in countries or regions with better investor legal protection, not only can the contagion effect of the financial crisis be effectively blocked, but also the magnification effect of the crisis contagion caused by financial development will be actively contained.From the pe

关 键 词：金融发展 金融危机 传染效应 法律保护 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]