我国中医服务规模及结构的分析和预测  

Analysis and Forecast of the Scale and Structure of Traditional Chinese Medicine Services in China

作　　者：郭在新 冯文[1] Guo Zaixin(School of Public Health,Peking University,Beijing,100191)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院,北京100191

出　　处：《医学与社会》2020年第7期1-4,共4页Medicine and Society

摘　　要：目的:分析中医服务的发展趋势,探讨以“强基层”为导向的中医相关政策是否发挥作用,并对中医服务的未来进行预测。方法:利用统计年鉴的数据,分析2008-2017年各类中医机构的人力和诊疗量的规模与变化趋势,并建立线性回归模型预测其到2020年和2030年的发展水平。结果:2017年,中医医院、门诊部和诊所的中医执业医师占比分别为74.39%、5.21%和20.40%,诊疗人次占比分别为80.31%、3.14%和16.56%。根据预测,至2030年,中医医院、门诊部和诊所的中医执业医师占比分别为71.69%、5.63%和22.68%,诊疗人次占比分别为80.93%、3.45%和15.62%。结论:新医改以来,中医服务呈“供给拉动需求”的发展模式,随着人力资源逐步向基层下沉,患者逐步向基层下沉。基层中医服务将在2030年发挥更大的作用。Objective:To summarize the development pattern of Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM)services,to discuss whether the relevant policies of TCM oriented by"strengthening the grassroots"play a role,and to predict the future of TCM services.Methods:Using the data of the statistical yearbook,to analyze the scale and structure of human resources and out-patients of the TCM institutions in 2008-2017.Prediction until 2020 and 2030 were established by linear regression models,respectively.Results:In 2017,the proportion of TCM licensed physician in TCM hospitals,outpatient departments and clinics were 74.39%,5.21%,20.40%,respectively,and the proportion of the outpatient visits were 80.31%,3.14%,16.56%,respectively.According to prediction,by 2030,the proportion of TCM licensed physician in TCM hospitals,outpatient departments and clinics will be 71.69%,5.63%,22.68%,respectively,and the proportion of the outpatient visits will be 80.93%,3.45%,15.62%,respectively.Conclusion:Since the medical reform,the development pattern of TCM service is the"supply-driven demand"pattern.With the gradual subsidence of human resources to the grassroots,the patients gradually sink to the grassroots.Grassroots TCM services will play a greater role in 2030.

关 键 词：中医服务 基层中医机构 结构 预测 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]