破解养老金困境亟待建立全要素贡献型养老金制度——兼回复相关质疑  

Establish a Pension System Based on the Total Factors Contribution to Solve the Pension Dilemma——A Reply to Relevant Questions

作　　者：李军[1] Li Jun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《探索与争鸣》2020年第6期107-117,159,共12页Exploration and Free Views

基　　金：中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所创新项目“老龄经济理论与实证研究”。

摘　　要：现收现付的养老金制度因人口老龄化而不可持续,基金制又因长寿风险而降低养老保障的有效性,现代经济增长的动力机制也不利于养老金来源基础的扩大。这些因素导致现行养老金制度的可持续性正面临着严峻的挑战。养老金本质上是社会对老年人过去劳动成果的补偿,现行制度下的养老金来源主要是单要素即劳动要素报酬的贡献,与技术要素和资本要素报酬无关,这是现行养老金来源制度设计的一个系统性缺陷。建立全要素贡献型的养老金来源制度,是解决养老金可持续性问题的根本出路,短期内可采取将所得税划转为养老金的方式。养老的本质是代际交换,不仅涉及经济层面的代际关系,也涉及社会道德、伦理等多层面的代际关系。构建多方面的和谐的代际关系,是解决养老问题的关键。The aging population causes the Pay-As-You-Go system unsustainable,meanwhile the longevity risk may reduce the effectiveness of the Fully Funded system,and the mechanism of modern economic growth has the inherent tendency to reduce the base of pension source under the current pension system.Therefore,the sustainability of the current pension system is facing severe challenges.In fact,the essence of pension is the reward of the economic value created by the elderly in the past.The current pension source is mainly based on the contribution of single factor(labor factor),and this is a systematic weakness in the design of the current pension source system.In the long run,the fundamental way to solve the issue of sustainability of pension source system is to establish a pension source system based on total factors contribution.In the short run,it can be started by using the method of transferring income tax into the pension system.

关 键 词：全要素贡献 养老金制度 经济学分析 经济增长机制 所得税划转养老金 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]