山西省学生肺结核发病趋势预测  

Prediction of the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis in students of Shanxi Province

作　　者：樊丽宇 范月玲[2] 王春蒲[2] 邓俊平[2] 高建伟[2] 仇丽霞[1] FAN Liyu;FAN Yueling;WANG Chunpu;DENG Junping;GAO Jianwei;QIU Lixia(Department of Health Statistics,Public Health College,Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan 030001,China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,太原030001 [2]山西省疾病预防控制中心结核病防控科

出　　处：《中国学校卫生》2020年第6期915-917,921,共4页Chinese Journal of School Health

摘　　要：目的探讨自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA模型)在山西省学生活动性肺结核发病情况及流行趋势预测中的应用,为学生结核病疫情的防治工作提供科学依据。方法运用SAS 9.3软件对2010年1月至2019年9月山西省学生活动性肺结核的月度报告数据建立最优ARIMA模型,并预测未来2年发病趋势。结果2010—2019年山西省学生活动性肺结核平均报告率为23.52/10万,呈总体下降趋势(χ2=999980.46,P<0.01)。拟合最优模型为SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12,SBC=982.16,拟合方程为(1-0.63B)(1-B12)Yt=(1-0.61B12)εt,平均相对误差为19.35%,预测发病趋势与历年一致,3—5月为发病高峰。结论山西省学校结核病防治工作取得良好进展,ARIMA乘积季节模型能够较好预测学生活动性肺结核发病流行趋势,为学校结核病疫情的早期防控提供科学依据。Objective To establish an autoregressive moving average model for the prediction of tuberculosis cases in students of Shanxi Province,and to provide scientific basic for the prevention and treatment of pulmonary tuerculosis among students. Methods A optimized ARIMA model was set up based on reported monthly data of TB in students from January 2010 to September 2019 in Shanxi Province by SAS 9.3 software,and the incidence trend in the next two years was predicted. Results The average reported rate of active TB in students of Shanxi Province was 23. 52 per 100 000 from 2010 to 2019,showing an overall downward trend( χ^2= 999 980.46,P<0.01). The optimal model was SARIMA( 0,1,1)( 0,1,1)12,SBC= 982.16. The fitted equation was( 1-0.63 B)( 1-B12) Yt=( 1-0.61 B12) εt. The mean relative error was 19.35%,and the predicted incidence trend was consistent with the previous years,and the peak was from March to May. Conclusion Substantial progress has been made in student TB prevention of Shanxi Province. The ARIMA product season model is suitable for forecasting the TB incidence in students,so as to provide scientific guidance for its early prevention and control.

关 键 词：结核 肺 患病率 流行病学研究 预测 学生 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学] R521[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]