气候变化对于冰川洪水的影响即冰情变化研究  

Research on the Impact of Climate Change on Glacier Floods

作　　者：古丽娅尔·穆合塔尔 Guliar Mukhtar(Information Center of Hydrology Bureau ofXinjiang Uygur AutonomousRegion,Urumqi 830000,Xinjiang)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区水文局信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《陕西水利》2020年第6期32-34,共3页Shaanxi Water Resources

摘　　要：根据叶尔羌河流域过去50年的冰川洪水和气候变化资料,研究该流域的温度和降水的长期变化、冰川洪水的特征以及冰川、河流岸边冰情的变化。研究结果表明:自1987年以来,流域温度明显升高,特别是在山区,夏季和秋季显著升高的温度加速了冰川的融化速度,导致冰湖溃决。洪水突发的频率有所增加,在1959年~1986年期间,冰湖溃决的频率为0.4次/年,在1997年~2006年期间增加到0.7次/年。洪峰流量也表现出增加的趋势,在1959年~2006年期间,共有7场洪水的洪峰流量超过4000 m3/s,其中3场发生在1997年之后。研究结果可为未来新疆内陆河整治叶尔羌河苏盖提吐乎防洪工程的建设提供可参考的气象和水文分析资料。Based on the data of glacial floods and climate change in the Yeerqiang River Basin over the past 50 years,the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin,the characteristics of glacial floods,and the changes in ice conditions on the banks of glaciers and rivers are studied.The results show that since 1987,the temperature in the watershed has increased significantly,especially in mountainous areas.The significantly increased temperature in summer and autumn has accelerated the melting rate of glaciers,leading to the collapse of ice lakes.The frequency of flood emergencies has increased.From 1959 to 1986,the frequency of ice lake outbursts was 0.4 times/year,and it increased to 0.7 times/year from 1997 to 2006.The flood peak discharge also shows an increasing trend.During the period from 1959 to 2006,there were 7 floods with a peak discharge of more than 4000 m3/s,three of which occurred after 1997.The research results can provide reference meteorological and hydrological analysis data for the construction of the inland river in Xinjiang in the future for the construction of the Yergang River Sugetitu flood control project.

关 键 词：冰川 洪水 气候变化 叶尔羌河流域 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]