基于FLUS模型的江西省国土空间开发模拟与评估  

Simulation and Evaluation of National Land Use and Spatial Development Based on FLUS Model:Jiangxi Province

作　　者：薛峰 李苗裔 马妍[1] 徐辉[2] Xue Feng;Li Miaoyi;Ma Yan;Xu Hui

机构地区：[1]福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院 [2]中国城市规划设计研究院创新中心

出　　处：《规划师》2020年第8期12-19,32,共9页Planners

摘　　要：在快速城镇化背景下,我国建设用地无序扩张现象十分普遍,对国土空间开发的模拟与评估成为科学编制国土空间规划的重要依据。研究以江西省为案例,在评价江西省2010年后备适宜建设用地潜力的基础上,采用FLUS模型,对江西省2035年建设用地的扩张进行模拟,将模拟预测结果与后备土地资源潜力进行对比,在区县尺度上对2010~2035年期间江西省的国土空间开发走势进行评估,并提出差异化的政策建议。结果表明,江西省省域后备适宜建设用地主要呈"以南昌盆地为中心集聚,向省域外围逐步稀疏"的态势分布;面向2035年,江西省建设用地呈现出以南昌市为核心节点,以南昌市周边的抚州市、宜春市与上饶市为主要扩张区域的"点极式"扩张;在不进行任何政策约束的情况下,省域建设用地扩张表现为"整体较可持续,局部较不可持续"。Disorderly expansion of land development in fast urbanization period has been common in China.Simulation and evaluation of national land use and spatial development is an important basis of national land and spatial planning.With Jiangxi province as an example,the paper makes an evaluation of reserved construction land potential in 2010,and predicts the expansion of construction land in 2035.By comparison,the land and space development trend of Jiangxi Province during the period of 2010-2035 was evaluated at the district and county scales,and differentiated policy recommendations were put forward.The results show that Jiangxi Province’s reserve suitable construction land is mainly distributed in the center of Nanchang Basin and gradually sparse towards the periphery of the province.In 2035,Jiangxi Province’s construction land will take Nanchang as the core node and Fuzhou,Yichun,and Shangrao cities around Nanchang are the“point-to-point”expansions;without any policy constraints,the expansion of provincial construction land appears to be“overall sustainable,locally less sustainable”.

关 键 词：江西省 建设用地扩张 模拟 评估 FLUS模型 

分 类 号：TU984.199[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]