基于断面流量的公共场所瞬时人数估算方法研究  

Study on the Estimation Method of the Instantaneous Number of People in Public Places Based on the Section Flow

作　　者：胡成[1,2] 李强 陈晋 Hu Cheng;Li Qiang;Chen Jin(Safety&Emergency Management Lab,Beijing Municipal Institute of Labour Protection,Beijing,100054;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes&Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing,100875)

机构地区：[1]北京市劳动保护科学研究所安全与应急管理研究室,北京100054 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《科技智囊》2020年第5期63-68,共6页Think Tank of Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41977408,41371489)资助。

摘　　要：为控制公共场所人群聚集风险,需要定量估算场所的人群空间分布,尤其是瞬时聚集人数。文章基于图像识别获得点状断面人流量数据,并根据开放性公共场所的类型和人群空间分布形态,提出4种具体的人群聚集数量估算方法,分别是进出口流量差值累计法(CMIO)、进出口流线节点分配法(LNDM)、节点转移概率矩阵法(NTPMM)和路径断面流量法(PSFM),同时给出了每种方法的适用范围。选择北京什刹海景区进行了案例应用,基于景区环湖道路的网状空间以及人群线状流动特点选择PSFM和LNDM估算方法,给出了荷花市场具体算例,道路人群滞留量估算结果与实际人群分布相符。文章研究的方法可为公共场所安全容量预警以及旅游景区最大承载量预警管理提供支持。In order to evaluate and control the risk of population aggregation in public places,it is necessary to quantitatively estimate the crowd space distribution,especially the instantaneous number of population aggregation in places.Based on the point section flow from image recognition,and according to the types of open public places and the spatial distribution of people,4 methods for estimating the number of people gathered are presented,which are Cumulative mode for the difference of inlet flow and outlet flow(CMIO),Flow line node distribution method(LNDM),Node transition probability matrix method(NTPMM),and Path section flow method(PSFM).At the same time,the application scope of each method is given.Shichahai Scenic Area in Beijing is selected as the research area.Based on the network space of the road around the lake and the linear flow characteristics of the population,the PSFM and LNDM estimation methods are selected,and the specific calculation example of lotus market is given.The prediction results of the road population retention are consistent with the actual population distribution.The method of this paper can provide support for the early warning management of the safety capacity of public places and the carry capacity of scenic area.

关 键 词：公共场所 人群聚集 图像识别 断面流量 瞬时人数 安全容量 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]