我国可再生能源发电趋势与市场空间研究--兼析“十四五”期间可再生能源发展潜力  

Research on the trend and market capacity of renewable energy power generation in China--And predictive analysis of the renewable energy development during the 14th five-year Plan period

作　　者：王风云[1] 张爽 

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第4期36-40,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“促进可再生能源发展的电价动态补贴机制研究”(17BJY057);URT项目(2019J00103)资助。

摘　　要：随着我国可再生能源发展,弃水、弃风、弃光和可再生能源消纳难问题突出,研究可再生能源发电趋势和电力市场空间对促进可再生能源产业高质量发展至关重要。本文基于灰色理论构建GM(1,1)模型对我国总发电量、火力发电量、可再生能源发电量和四类可再生能源装机容量进行预测分析,在火电装机容量"十三五"规划红线约束下,分析我国可再生能源发电供给可行性和未来市场空间,研究表明:如果2020-2025年火力发电装机规模不变,到2025年火力发电可以为可再生能源发电释放11287亿千瓦时的发电空间;如果大力发展可再生能源,持续增加的可再生能源发电量可以满足全社会用电需求增长。最后,本文提出促进可再生能源高质量持续发展的对策建议。With the development of renewable energy in China,the curtailment of water,wind and light and the difficulty of renewable energy consumption are prominent.It is crucial to promote the high-quality development of renewable energy industry on the study of the trend and market capacity of renewable energy power generation.Based on the gray theory,this paper builds the GM(1,1)model to forecast total generating capacity,thermal power generation,renewable energy power generation,and four types of renewable energy installed capacity.Under the constraint of the red line of the 13th five-year plan for thermal power installed capacity,this paper analyses the supply of China’s renewable energy generation and its future market space.The results show that if the installed capacity of thermal power generation remains unchanged from 2020 to 2025,it is predicted that thermal power generation can release 1128.7 billion KWH of power generation space for renewable energy power generation by 2025.If the renewable energy is vigorously developed,the continuously increasing renewable energy generation capacity can meet the growth of electricity demand of the whole society.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the high quality sustainable development of renewable energy.

关 键 词：可再生能源 市场空间 发电量 装机容量 灰色模型 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224