中国煤炭价格变化对PPI和CPI的影响效应研究  

Research on the Effect of China Coal Price Changes on PPI and CPI

作　　者：翟礼淼 曹赟 王丽娜[3] Zhai Limiao;Cao Yun;Wang Lina

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学(研究生院) [2]中国海洋大学经济学院 [3]中国社会科学院技术创新与战略管理研究中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第4期80-83,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：煤炭资源是我国主要的能源资源,对国民经济的发展发挥着不可替代的重要作用。本文分析了煤炭价格变化趋势以及我国PPI、CPI波动特征,建立煤炭价格波动对PPI和CPI短期动态的误差修正模型和VAR模型,并进行脉冲响应和方差分解,实证分析我国2000-2018年煤炭价格变化对PPI和CPI效应。实证研究表明:短期动态内,煤炭价格每变动1%,PPI平均增加0.2263%,CPI平均增加0.0863%。煤炭价格的变动对PPI的影响程度大于对CPI的影响程度;根据脉冲响应,煤炭价格冲击对通货膨胀的反应敏感。但是,随着时间的推移,其影响迅速消退;煤炭价格的冲击对CPI和PPI的影响具有滞后性。Coal resources are my country’s main energy resources and play an irreplaceable and important role in the development of the national economy.This paper analyzes the trend of coal price changes and the fluctuation characteristics of China’s PPI and CPI,establishes a short-term dynamic error correction model and VAR model of coal price fluctuations for PPI and CPI,and performs impulse response and variance decomposition to empirically analyze China’s coal prices from 2000 to 2018 PPI and CPI effects of changing coal prices.Empirical research shows that in the short-term dynamics,for every 1%change in coal prices,the average PPI increases by 0.2263%and the average CPI increases by 0.0863%.Changes in coal prices affect PPI more than CPI;according to the impulse response,coal price shocks are sensitive to inflation.However,over time,its impact quickly subsided;the impact of coal prices had a lagging effect on CPI and PPI.

关 键 词：煤炭价格 PPI CPI VAR 模型脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1F726