基于系统动力学模型的区域经济与物流协同机理研究  

Research on Synergetic Mechanism of Regional Economy and Logistics Based on System Dynamics Model

作　　者：陆华[1] 司温科 袁敏 杜志平[1] LU Hua;SI Wenke;YUAN Min;DU Zhiping(School of Logistics,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China)

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院物流学院,北京101149

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2020年第3期423-428,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(71473013,71772016)。

摘　　要：基于河南省2011—2018年数据,从区域经济与区域物流发展关系角度出发,通过数据建模进行灰色关联度分析,得出各项经济指标与物流发展的关联度,其中对河南省区域物流发展带动作用强的指标为地区GDP、三次产业增加值,较弱的交通运输仓储和邮政业固定资产投资.选取这四项指标用于系统动力学中,建立区域经济与物流协调发展的系统动力模型,利用Vensim软件对河南省2008—2018年面板数据进行仿真模拟.分析比较数据后,从物流自增长系数、产业结构政策两方面进行政策实验.研究表明:加大物流投资可以推动河南省GDP、物流需求量、物流供给能力的增加;产业结构优化是推动河南省经济与物流协同发展的重要路径.Based on the data of Henan Province from 2011 to 2018,from the perspective of the relationship between regional economy and regional logistics development,the gray correlation analysis was carried out through data modeling,and the correlation between various economic indicators and logistics development was obtained.Among them,the indicators that have strong driving effect on the development of regional logistics in Henan Province are the regional GDP,the added value of three industries,the weaker transportation storage and fixed asset investment in the postal industry.These four indicators wereselected for system dynamics,and a systematic dynamic model for the coordinated development of regional economy and logistics was established.The panel data of Henan Province from 2008 to 2018 were simulated by Vensim software.After analyzing and comparing the data,policy experimentswerecarried out from the two aspects of logistics self-growth coefficient and industrial structure policy.Research shows that increasing logistics investment can promote the increase of GDP,logistics demand and logistics supply capacity in Henan Province.Optimization of industrial structure is an important way to promote the coordinated development of economy and logistics in Henan Province.

关 键 词：物流工程 协同机理 系统动力学 区域物流 区域经济 

分 类 号：U116.1[交通运输工程]