中国—东盟农产品产业内贸易特征及国别序  

Characteristics of China-ASEANIntra-Industry Trade ofAgricultural Products and Country Influence Sequence

作　　者：戚兆坤 隋博文 Qi Zhaokun;Sui Bowen(2.School of Economics and Management,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou 535011,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]北部湾大学经济管理学院,广西钦州535011

出　　处：《梧州学院学报》2020年第2期9-22,共14页Journal of Wuzhou University

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(17XJY005);国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(71662066);广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2017KY0749)。

摘　　要：根据联合国SITC(REV.04)标准,运用GL指数、BI指数、TM指数和TC指数,测算了1992—2017年中国—东盟农产品产业内贸易水平。在此基础上,使用因子分析法和聚类分析法对2008—2017年东盟十国农产品产业内贸易水平及发展潜力进行分析。结果表明:中国—东盟SITC0类农产品的产业内贸易程度较强,SITC1类农产品和SITC2类农产品呈现由产业间贸易转向产业内贸易的倾向,SITC4类农产品贸易一直表现为明显的产业间贸易;边际产业内贸易指数具有高低交替变化特征,贸易增量主要由产业间贸易引起;除新加坡外,一般农产品贸易总量大的国家,产业内贸易增长潜力小,而贸易总量小的国家潜力大。By using the GL index,BI index,Tm index and TC index according to the SITC(rev.04)standard of the U.N.,this paper calculates the level of China-ASEANintra-industry trade of agricultural products in 1992-2017.Based on this,this paper analyzes the level and developing potentials of the 10 countries in ASEANintra-industry trade of agricultural products in2008-2017 by the methods of factor analysis and cluster analysis.The results showed that there is a high level in China-ASEANintra-industry trade in SITCO agricultural products,that the trade in SITC1 and SITC2 agricultural products shows a tendency of changing from inter-industry trade to intra-industry trade,that the trade in SITC4agricultural products remains obviously in inter-industry trade,that the index of marginal inter-industry trade has a characteristic of fluctuation between high and low and the trade growth is mainly caused byn inter-industry trade,that the countries,except for Singapore,with big trading volume of general agricultural products has small growing potentials of intra-industry trade while the countries with small trading volume of general agricultural products has great growing potentials of intra-industry trade.

关 键 词：中国—东盟 农产品 产业内贸易 因子分析 聚类分析 

分 类 号：F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易] F746.9[经济管理—产业经济]