COVID-19重大疫情下的电网负荷趋势评估新方法  

A New Method for Evaluating Power Load Trends in Major Outbreaks of COVID-19

作　　者：谢家安 莫颖生 王玉荣[2] XIE Jia'an;MO Yingsheng;WANG Yurong(Foshan Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Foshan,Guangdong 528000,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司佛山供电局,广东佛山528000 [2]东南大学电气工程学院,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《广东电力》2020年第7期42-48,共7页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(51507031)。

摘　　要：特殊疫情时期,存在可能无法及时解决的、导致电网事故的临界缺陷问题,由此引起电力系统频率异常波动、运行过电压、无功补偿不足等情况,严重降低电网运行的经济性,影响电网运行的安全性和稳定性;对此,提出一种基于二分段-D-shape的负荷趋势评估新方法。首先以相邻正常年份春节假期后的电网负荷曲线进行样本训练,依据相似度指标训练出标准日负荷曲线;再利用二分段-D-shape评估法对2019年12月爆发的新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)疫情下春节后的负荷曲线进行计算,从而实现对节后负荷曲线趋势特性的有效评估。该方法可为后续的电网决策提供可靠的理论依据,实例分析证明了其可行性和有效性。There may be some problems of critical defects which can not be solved in time and cause power grid accidents in the special epidemic period,thus resulting in abnormal fluctuation of frequency,operating overvoltage and insufficient reactive power compensation of the power system,and seriously reducing economy of the power grid and affecting safety and stability of the power grid.Therefore,this paper proposes a new method for load trend evaluation based on two-segment-D-shape.Firstly,it uses the load curves of the power grid after the Spring Festival holiday in the adjacent normal years for training the standard daily load curves according to the similarity index,and then adopts the two-segment-D-shape evaluation method to calculate the load curves in the COVID-19 epidemic period after the Spring Festival so as to realize effective evaluation of the load trend characteristics.This method can provide reliable theoretical basis for the subsequent power grid decision-making,and example analysis proves feasibility and effectiveness of the method,which has good practical and promotion value.

关 键 词：二分段-D-shape 标准日负荷曲线 新型冠状病毒 趋势特性 评估 

分 类 号：TM715.1[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]