基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障的停电风险评估  

Power Failure Risk Assessment Method Based on MC-CFBM

作　　者：林平 李怡然 李衍川 李金湖 LIN Ping;LI Yiran;LI Yanchuan;LI Jinhu(State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou,Fujian 350000,China;Fujian Electric Power Research Institute,Fuzhou,Fujian 350000,China;State Grid Xintong Yili Technology Co.Ltd.,Fuzhou,Fujian 350000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网福建省电力有限公司,福建福州350000 [2]国网福建省电力公司电力科学研究院,福建福州350000 [3]国网信通亿力科技有限责任公司,福建福州350000

出　　处：《微型电脑应用》2020年第7期64-69,共6页Microcomputer Applications

摘　　要：智能化电网的快速建设,增加了电网的不确定性并提高了大面积停电的概率,为此,提出了基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障停电模型(Monte Carlo and Cascading Failure Blackout Model,MC-CFBM)的停电风险评估方法,以制定相应的停电预防和控制策略。建立了连锁故障停电模型,包括继保装置的隐性故障模型,基于直流潮流的最小切负荷模型,连锁故行停电模型。在连锁故障停电模型的基础上,建立了MC-CFBM的停电风险评估方法,能够准确的得到短时间停电数据。基于简单随机采样法的MC方法提高了算法的收敛速度。建立了系统风险指标,支路风险指标和N-1风险指标等用于评估停电风险的方法。实验仿真结果验证了所提MC-CFBM收敛速度较快,具有可靠性;建立的停电风险指标能够准确描述停电风险,为停电预防和制定相应的控制策略提供了理论指导。The rapid construction of intelligent power grid increases the uncertainty of power grid and increases the probability of large-scale blackout.Therefore,a blackout risk assessment method based on Monte Carlo and cascading failure blackout model(MC-CFBM)is proposed to develop corresponding blackout prevention and control strategies.An interlocking failure model is established,including the recessive failure model of relay protection device,the minimum load cutting model based on dc power flow,and the interlocking failure model.On the basis of the chain-failure blackout model,the MC-CFBM blackout risk assessment method is established,which can accurately obtain the short-time blackout data.MC method based on simple random sampling method improves the convergence speed of the algorithm.The system risk index,branch risk index and N-1 risk index are established.Experimental simulation results verify that the proposed MC-CFBM has fast convergence speed and reliability.The established power failure risk index can accurately describe the power failure risk and provide theoretical guidance for power failure prevention and corresponding control strategies.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛方法 连锁故障停电模型 风险评估 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]