金砖国家合作的贸易效应研究——基于合成控制法的实证分析  

Research on the trade effect of BRICS cooperation——An empirical analysis based on synthetic control method

作　　者：谷祖莎[1] 许维杰 GU Zu-sha;XU Wei-jie(School of Business,Shandong University,Weihai,Shandong 264209)

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院,山东威海264209

出　　处：《价格月刊》2020年第7期51-58,共8页

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“山东省服务业外商直接投资的就业效应研究”(编号:14CJJJ16);山东大学商学院研究生科学研究基金资助。

摘　　要：基于2000年~2017年4个金砖国家和33个控制组国家的面板数据,利用合成控制法,实证研究了金砖国家合作机制建立对中国与金砖国家双边贸易的影响。结果显示:金砖国家合作机制建立显著促进了中国对金砖国家整体进口贸易的增长;具体到单个国家,显著促进了中国对巴西、南非的进口贸易以及中国对印度的出口贸易;进一步研究发现,中国与金砖各国之间的贸易仍有巨大发展潜力。据此,提出了建立金砖国家自由贸易区,消除贸易壁垒;互学互鉴,推动经济结构改革;将金砖合作融入"一带一路"建设,扩大金砖国家辐射范围与影响力等对策建议。Based on the panel data of 4 BRICS and 33 control group countries from 2000 to 2017, this paper uses the synthetic control method to empirically study the impact of the establishment of BRICS cooperation mechanism on bilateral trade between China and BRICS. The results show that: the establishment of BRICS cooperation mechanism has significantly promoted the growth of China’s overall import trade with BRICS. Specifically,it has significantly promoted China’s import trade with Brazil and South Africa, as well as China’s export trade with India. Further research shows that the trade between China and BRICS still has great potential for development. On this basis, it is proposed to establish BRICS free trade zones, eliminate trade barriers, learn from each other, promote economic structural reform, integrate BRICS cooperation into the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and expand BRICS’ scope and influence.

关 键 词：金砖国家 贸易效应 合成控制法 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F753[经济管理—国际贸易]