蔬菜价格波动的福利效应测度——以城镇居民为例  

Welfare effect measurement of vegetable price fluctuations——Taking urban residents as an example

作　　者：喻言[1] 李奇 YU Yan;LI Qi(School of Economics,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha,Hunan 410128)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《价格月刊》2020年第8期13-19,共7页

基　　金：湖南省社科基金项目“不确定条件下农民专业合作社控制农产品价格风险的机理及实证研究”(编号:18YBA223)。

摘　　要：选用2009年~2018年14个省份的16种蔬菜价格,构建Minot模型测度蔬菜价格波动对城镇居民短期和长期福利的影响,并利用H-P滤波对蔬菜价格波动的长期趋势和循环波动情况进行分析。研究结果表明,城镇居民的蔬菜消费福利变化与蔬菜价格变化相反,短期福利与长期福利的变化趋势相同且长期福利优于短期福利,进而提出保持蔬菜价格稳定、给予精准补贴和扶持新销售模式等建议,以缓解蔬菜价格波动对福利的负影响。This paper selects the prices of 16 kinds of vegetables in 14 provinces from 2009 to 2018 to construct the Minot model in order to measure the impact of vegetable price fluctuations on the short-term and long-term welfare of urban residents,and uses H-P filtering wave to analyze the long-term trend and cyclical fluctuations of vegetable price fluctuations.The results show that the changes in vegetable consumption welfare of urban residents are contrary to the changes in vegetable prices,that the change trends of short-term welfare and long-term welfare are the same and that the long-term welfare is better than the short-term welfare.Then,it is proposed to maintain the stability of vegetable prices,give precise subsidies and support new sales models,in order to alleviate the negative impact of vegetable price fluctuations on welfare.

关 键 词：补充变量法 Minot模型 蔬菜价格波动 城镇居民消费福利 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]