基于延迟时间模型的不完全检修计划优化模型  

Optimum imperfect inspection and maintenance scheduling model considering delay time theory

作　　者：刘葛辉 陈绍宽[1] 金华 刘爽[1] 彭宏勤[1] LIU Ge-hui;CHEN Shao-kuan;JIN Hua;LIU Shuang;PENG Hong-qin(MOT Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输部综合交通运输大数据应用技术交通运输行业重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（工学版）》2020年第7期1298-1307,共10页Journal of Zhejiang University：Engineering Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571015,71621001)。

摘　　要：针对现有基于检测的状态维修方法仅适用于短期维修计划,且通常单一地考虑不完全维修或不完全检测的问题,构建适合设备维修现场特征的长期维修计划优化模型,考虑检测与维修活动均不完全情况下的退化过程.利用延迟时间模型描述退化过程,围绕双重不确定的检修活动,构建基于递推关系的可靠度模型,该模型可以有效表示系统退化速度和故障发生概率.以单位时间系统费用最小为决策目标,引入可靠度、可用度等约束,建立检修计划优化模型,求解得到最佳检测周期和更换周期.案例研究表明,利用提出的模型能够有效优化系统检修计划,节省维修成本.通过与固定周期和固定可靠度阈值的维修策略进行对比,说明检测精度对于检测模型的优化效果具有显著影响,当检测精度属于较高水平时,检修模型明显优于其他维修模型.The existing condition-based maintenance methods based on inspection activities were only suitable for short-term schedules and involved only imperfect inspection or maintenance. A long-term optimization model was proposed based on on-site features of system maintenance scheduling by incorporating deterioration process with both imperfect maintenance and inspection activities. The delay time theory was introduced to describe deterioration process of system with double contingencies from imperfect maintenance and inspection. The proposed recursive reliability model can accurately evaluate the deterioration rate and failure rate of system. A maintenance scheduling optimization model was applied to minimize the average cost by searching appropriate inspection cycles and replacement strategy. The reliability and availability constraints were considered to meet the requirement of maintenance. Case studies show that the proposed model can attain optimal inspection strategy with minimum system cost. The accuracy of inspection was crucial for the scheduling optimization model compared with age-based and reliability-based maintenance models. The proposed model with a high accuracy of inspection reached the minimum cost compared to models without inspections.

关 键 词：延迟时间模型 预防性检修 不完全检修 检测周期 可靠度 维修费用 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计] TP301[理学—数学]