人口死亡统计的间接模型研究  

A Study on the Indirect Estimation Model of Mortality Analysis

作　　者：黄荣清[1] 曾宪新[1] HUANG Rongqing;ZENG Xianxin(School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《人口与经济》2020年第4期15-29,共15页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“20世纪80年代以来中国实际人口死亡水平及其变化的估计”(15ARK003)。

摘　　要：间接模型也称关系模型,是死亡研究中常用的方法。它通过揭示两个不同人口死亡力之间的函数关系来反映人口死亡规律。间接模型主要应用于人口死亡水平的间接估计和数据的修正。从人口死亡直接模型所刻画的死亡随年龄变动的规律角度对现有间接模型进行了改进,推导出间接模型可能的几种形式。以模型生命表的数据验证了在不同条件下各种间接模型形式的精度,以此为基础对间接模型在修正数据的应用方面提出几点建议。The indirect estimation model can be known as relation of mortality model,which is explored the law of mortality functional relationship between the death forces of two different kinds of mortality.It is often used for indirect estimation and data changing in the mortality analysis.In this paper,the existing indirect model has been improved from the law of death with age that described by the direct model of population death;Meanwhile,several possible forms of the indirect model have been deduced.With the data from the regional model life tables of Coale,the accuracy of various model forms under different conditions have been verfied.Based on these verification,we give some suggestions on the use of the indirect estimation in data correction.

关 键 词：人口死亡 间接模型 生命表 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]