中国页岩气资源开发利用的能源安全效益评价与预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Energy Security Effect of Shale Gas Utilization in China

作　　者：黎江峰 吴巧生[2,3] 周娜 李思瑶[2,3] LI Jiangfeng;WU Qiaosheng;ZHOU Na;LI Siyao(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Mineral Resource Strategy and Policy Research Center,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan,Hubei 430074,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan,Hubei 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院博士后流动站,北京100871 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)矿产资源战略与政策研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第4期1-8,共8页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA12)。

摘　　要：结合页岩气等非常规天然气资源开发的影响因素,构建中国天然气安全评价指标体系,测算了1996—2016年中国天然气安全指数。在此基础上,结合页岩气发展规划以及学习曲线理论,设置了两种学习率情景的中国页岩气开发规模,运用PSO-ELM模型预测了到2035年不同情景下中国天然气安全指数。研究发现:中国非常规天然气资源的商业化开发对天然气安全有积极的作用;只有在实现技术突破的情况下,页岩气开发对能源安全才具有一定的正向效益。In combination with the factors affecting the development of unconventional natural gas resources such as shale gas, an evaluation index system of China’s natural gas safety is established, and natural gas safety index in China from 1996 to 2016 is evaluated. On this basis, in combination with China’s unconventional natural gas development planning and learning curve theory, shale gas production growth scenarios under two learning rate scenarios are constructed,and PSO-ELM model is used to predict the safety score under different scenarios by the year 2035. The research shows that commercial exploitation of unconventional natural gas resources in China has a positive effect on the safety of natural gas and that only in the case of technological breakthroughs can shale gas development have a positive effect on energy security.

关 键 词：页岩气 能源安全 PSO-ELM模型 学习曲线 情景分析 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]