New technology foresight method based on intelligent knowledge management  

作　　者：Lingling ZHANG Siting HUANG 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [2]Research Center on Fictitious Economy&Data Science,Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China [3]School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy

出　　处：《Frontiers of Engineering Management》2020年第2期238-247,共10页工程管理前沿（英文版）

基　　金：The work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.71471169,91546201 and 71071151).

摘　　要：The increasing importance of technology foresight has simultaneously raised the significance of methods that determine crucial areas and technologies.However,qualitative and quantitative methods have shortcomings.The former involve high costs and many limitations,while the latter lack expert experience.Intelligent knowledge management emphasizes human–machine integration,which combines the advantages of expert experience and data mining.Thus,we proposed a new technology foresight method based on intelligent knowledge management.This method constructs a technological online platform to increase the number of participating experts.A secondary mining is performed on the results of patent analysis and bibliometrics.Thus,forward-looking,innovative,and disruptive areas and relevant experts must be discovered through the following comprehensive process:Topic acquisition→topic delivery→topic monitoring→topic guidance→topic reclamation→topic sorting→topic evolution→topic conforming→expert recommendation.

关 键 词：technology foresight intelligent knowledge management technological online platform 

分 类 号：TP39[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]