技术进步一定会带来一个区域农业用水总量下降吗——基于河北省面板数据实证分析  

Will Technological Progress Lead to a Decline in Agricultural Water Use——An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of Hebei Province

作　　者：王哲[1] 陈煜 WANG Zhe;CHEN Yu

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济贸易学院,保定071000

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2020年第6期81-89,共9页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(编号:17BJY093)。

摘　　要：一直以来农业节水技术的进步被视为提高农业用水效率的关键途径,但是单位用水效率的提高真的能有效降低一个区域农业灌溉用水量吗?本文充分借鉴能源反弹效应的相关研究,提出农业用水反弹效应,同时选取河北省这一地下水严重超采区作为研究对象,并搜集省际面板数据展开实证分析,运用DEA模型对河北省2006—2016年农业用水技术贡献效率(纯技术效率)进行系统地测算,继而推算每年的农业用水反弹效应数值,结合实际情况探讨农业节水技术进步对农业用水反弹的影响。结果表明,一是农业技术进步对河北省农业用水量的降低有明显推动作用,且主要来源于科技进步的贡献,一定程度上促进了该地区的农业节水;二是农业科技进步与技术贡献率对河北省地区农业用水反弹效应影响显著;三是河北省农业用水过程中普遍存在反弹效应,且存在年份上的差异,大多数年份中农业用水反弹效应数值大于0。最后,针对如何有效降低河北省农业用水反弹效应系统地提出相应对策与建议。The progress of agricultural water-saving technology has long been regarded as the key way to improve the efficiency of agricultural water,but can we reduce the agricultural irrigation water consumption by promoting unit water efficiency?Based on the research of energy rebound effect,this paper puts forward the rebound effect of agricultural water.Choosing Hebei province as the research object,we collect provincial panel data and conduct empirical analysis.Specifically,this study estimates the pure technical efficiency of agricultural water use in Hebei province from 2006 to 2016,the annual agricultural water rebound effect,and explore the effect of agricultural water-saving technology progress on agricultural water rebounding.The results show that,first,agricultural technology progress has a significant role in promoting the reduction of agricultural water consumption in Hebei province,which mainly comes from the contribution of scientific and technological progress and promotes agricultural water saving in this region.Second,agricultural technology progress and technical contribution rate have a significant impact on the rebound effect of agricultural water consumption in Hebei province.Third,the rebound effect generally exists in the process of agricultural water use in Hebei province and various years.In most years,the value of the agricultural water rebound effect is greater than 0.Finally,we put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on how to effectively reduce the rebound effect of agricultural water use in Hebei province.

关 键 词：农业用水反弹效应 农业节水 技术贡献率 数据包络分析(DEA模型) 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.213