从第三极到北极:气候与冰冻圈变化及其影响  

From the Third Pole to the Arctic:changes and impacts of the climate and cryosphere

作　　者：王康 张廷军[2,8] 牟翠翠 钟歆玥 彭小清 曹斌 鲁蕾 郑雷 吴小丹 刘佳 WANG Kang;ZHANG Tingjun;MU Cuicui;ZHONG Xinyue;PENG Xiaoqing;CAO Bin;LU Lei;ZHENG Lei;WU Xiaodan;LIU Jia(School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;National Tibetan Plateau Data Center,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;Department of Mathematics and Information Sciences,Chang’An University,Xi'an 710064,China;Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research,University of Colorado BoulderCO80303,USA;University Cooperation for Polar Research(UCPR),Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000 [4]中国科学院青藏高原研究所国家青藏高原科学数据中心,北京100101 [5]武汉大学中国南极测绘研究中心,湖北武汉430079 [6]长安大学数学与信息科学系,陕西西安710064 [7]美国科罗拉多大学博尔德分校北极与高山研究所,美国科罗拉多80303 [8]中国高校极地联合研究中心,北京100875

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2020年第1期104-123,共20页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607003);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100313);国家自然科学基金项目(41801028)资助。

摘　　要：第三极和北极地区对于区域和全球环境、社会经济以及国家战略的重要性日益凸现。通过对第三极和北极气候与冰冻圈研究的现状、趋势进行梳理总结,为未来的系统研究提供借鉴。结果显示,第三极和北极气候系统与冰冻圈正在发生显著变化并预计将持续下去。第三极和北极地区气温在以全球平均升温速度两倍的速率变暖,且在20世纪70年代以来,变化总体趋势高度一致;降水变化总体呈增加趋势,但变率和不确定性较大;极端事件(尤其是极端降水)的频率增加;积雪范围总体上呈现减少趋势,雪水当量、积雪天数的变化存在区域和周期性差异;多年冻土温度升高,活动层厚度增加,亦呈现较大的区域差异。这些变化不仅对生态、水文、碳循环产生重要影响,而且对基础设施、社会经济以及人类健康产生不可忽视的影响,包括重金属污染、食品安全等。气候及冰冻圈快速变化会通过反照率反馈、水汽反馈等机制被放大,并通过一系列大气及海洋环流过程,对周边乃至全球气候系统产生广泛影响。目前第三极和北极研究中面临的重要共同问题包括极度稀疏的地面观测资料、模型物理机制和精细化描述不足以及缺少与周边地区乃至全球系统关联的量化研究和可靠证据。这些问题的解决都需要依赖地面监测网络的扩展以及对冰冻圈和气候系统物理过程理解的提升。从第三极到北极,不仅是研究视角的扩大,更是全面理解第三极和北极在地球系统中作用的必经之路。The Third Pole and Arctic are important for environmental,social-economic,and political developments and strategies for China.It is expected to provide some experiences for the future comprehensive research by summarizing the current situation and tendency of the researches on the Third Pole and Arctic.The Third Pole and Arctic climate and cryosphere components showed significant changes,which are expected to continue in the future decades.Land air temperature in the Third Pole and Arctic warmed at twice the rate of global warming and the overall trends were highly consistent since the 1970s.The frequency of extreme events increased over the past decades.Seasonal snow cover,permafrost,land ice,sea ice,ecosystem,and hydrological cycles also showed considerable changes.These changes have not only important impacts on ecology,hydrology,and carbon cycles but also considerable impacts on infrastructure,socioeconomics,and human health.Continuously significant changes in the climate system and cryosphere may affect the globe through the amplification derived from albedo and water vapor feedbacks and a series of atmospheric circulation processes and ocean circulation processes.Currently,the common challenges of studies in the Third Pole and Arctic include extremely sparse ground monitoring networks,insufficient physics and spatiotemporal resolutions in models,and the lack of quantitative research and reliable evidence in the teleconnections within global systems.Resolving these issues mainly depends on the expansion of the ground monitoring networks and the improvements of understanding of the physics in the cryosphere and climate system.Extending from the Third Pole to the Arctic is not only the expansion of the research perspective but also important to understand their roles in the Earth system.

关 键 词：第三极 北极 气候 冰冻圈 变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343.6