新冠肺炎疫情对中国港航业的影响及其对策  

Influences and response measures of COVID-19 epidemic on shipping and port industry in China

作　　者：张永锋[1] 龚建伟 殷明 ZHANG Yong-feng;GONG Jian-wei;YIN Ming(Shanghai International Shipping Institute,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200082,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学上海国际航运研究中心,上海200082

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2020年第3期159-167,共9页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71402096);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2019BGL009)。

摘　　要：分析了新冠肺炎疫情对于经济、贸易和产业的影响,论述了疫情条件下航运与产业的传导机制和直观影响;综合运用Granger检验、问卷调查、企业调研、专家访谈等方式评估了疫情对于港航业的总体影响;聚焦不同市场板块,分析了疫情对港口、集装箱、油轮、干散货、邮轮等细分板块的不同影响程度;结合港航业当前困难,提出了主要应对举措建议。研究结果表明:新冠肺炎疫情已经给世界经济、贸易和产业产生了较大影响,并通过全球供应链传导于航运产业;每日新增病例与波罗的海干散货指数具有较强的Granger因果关系;2020年第一季度,中国主要监测港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量分别为105 353×10^4 t、3 766.6×10^4 TEU,同比下滑3.5%、8.6%;疫情对于干散货、集装箱、油轮的短期冲击都较大,2020年2月,8大集装箱枢纽港口吞吐量同比下滑19.8%,邮轮客运遭受全面关闭的打击;后市复苏将是一个缓慢恢复的过程,新冠肺炎疫情已经并将持续对港航业产生较大影响;建议航运企业强化境外口岸政策与港口挂靠跟踪,防范船舶租约纠纷及法律风险,完善邮轮的疫情防控体系,推动智慧港口与智能航运发展等应对措施。The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on economy,trade and industry was analyzed,and the transmission mechanism and visual impact of shipping and industry under epidemic condition were discussed.Based on Granger test,questionnaire survey,enterprise research and expert interview,the overall impacts of shipping and port industry were evaluated.Focusing on different market segments,the different impacts on ports,containers,tankers,dry bulk cargoes,cruise ships and other subdivisions were evaluated.Combined with the current difficulties of the shipping and port industry,major countermeasures were put forward.Research result shows that the COVID-19 epidemic has taken a severe recession on global economy,trade and industry,and has been transmitted to the shipping industry by global supply chains.There is a strong Granger causal relationship between the COVID-19 daily new cases and the Baltic Dry Index.In the first quarter of 2020,the throughput of cargo and containers of main monitored ports in China were 105353×10^4 t and 3766.6×10^4 TEU,respectively,and year-on-year decrease by 3.5%and 8.6%,respectively.The epidemic has a greater short-term impact on dry bulk cargo,containers and oil tankers.In February 2020,the throughput of the eight major container hub ports declined by 19.8%year-on-year,and cruise passenger transport was hit by the overall closure.The recovery will be a slow process,and the COVID-19 epidemic will continue to have a negative impact on the shipping and port industry.It is suggested that some measures are put forward such as strengthening overseas port policy and port linking tracking,avoiding ship charter disputes and legal risks,improving the system of prevention and control of cruise ships,and promoting the development of smart ports and smart shipping.

关 键 词：运输经济 港航业 问卷调查 新冠肺炎 港口吞吐量 集装箱班轮市场 邮轮经济 

分 类 号：U692[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]