住房政策下房地产租购决策仿真研究  

A Simulation-based Study on the Rent-purchase Decision-making of Real Estate Under Different Housing Policies

作　　者：陈珈瀚 罗正军[1] 沈洋[1] 周德群[1] CHEN Jia-han;LUO Zheng-jun;SHEN Yang;ZHOU De-qun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2020年第3期142-147,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573121);国家社会科学基金一般项目(18BGL193);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(NR2016016).

摘　　要：分析了租购并举政策出台的背景、政策内涵和作用机理,识别了房地产市场主要的参与主体和部分影响因素,构建了基于多Agent的房地产主体决策仿真模型,将政府主体决策模型化为各项政策调控措施,将消费者主体进行分类和效用函数建模,通过问卷调查和实证数据收集获得模型相关参数,选择Netlogo平台进行仿真实验。仿真结果表明,以租购同权为代表的公共服务权利政策、房产税、限购措施均能在一定程度上起到对房价和投资行为的调控作用,同时,土地供给政策也会通过租购市场的联动影响房价和租购群体比率的变化。在仿真分析的基础上,提出相应政策建议。This study analyzes the background,connotation and mechanism of the policy of"the mutual development of house renting and purchasing",and identifies the primary participants and influencing factors in real estate market.Based on multi-agent simulation,this paper transforms the decision-making model of government agent into various policy scenarios and control measures,classifies the consumer agents,and models the utility function.After model development,this work uses questionnaire survey and empirical research to evaluate the relevant parameters of the model,and the Netlogo platform is selected for performing simulation experiments.The simulation results show that the public service policy represented by the same right of rent and purchase,real estate tax and purchase restriction measures can inhibit the housing price and investment behavior to some degree.Meanwhile,the land supply policy will also affect the change of the housing price and the ratio of the leaseholders through the linkage of the leasehold market.Based on the simulation results,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.

关 键 词：多AGENT系统 租购并举 决策 仿真 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]