阿里网购价格指数与传统CPI关系研究  

A Study on Relationship Between Ali Online Shopping Price Index and Traditional CPI

作　　者：刘洋 马帅峰 Liu Yang;Ma Shuaifeng(School of Statistics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;Alibaba Network Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310052,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院,成都611130 [2]阿里巴巴网络技术有限公司,杭州310052

出　　处：《统计与决策》2020年第11期22-26,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：随着网络购物的快速发展,线上销售额占全社会销售总额的比重也在不断增高,而线上零售市场与传统市场相比,在商品种类、价格、购买人群等方面差异巨大,因此研究基于线上的商品价格指数与传统价格指数的关系就有着重要意义。文章采用交叉谱分析方法,研究了阿里网购价格指数(SPI)与基于传统方法编制的官方价格指数(CPI)在时间上是否存在领先滞后关系。结果显示:在衣着、交通以及食品分指数方面,传统CPI在时间上落后线上价格指数,但传统CPI在教育分指数方面则在时间上领先线上价格指数;两者匹配周期为10.7个月,阿里网购价格指数在时间上领先传统CPI1.22个月。阿里网购价格指数虽不能完全代替传统CPI指数,但与传统CPI指数存在周期匹配。阿里网购价格指数在一定程度上对传统CPI指数具有补充和预测作用。With the rapid development of online shopping, the proportion of online sales in the total sales of the whole society is also increasing. Compared with the traditional market, the online retail market is greatly different in terms of commodity types,prices and buyers. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between network-based commodity price index and traditional price index. This paper adopts cross-spectrum analysis method to study whether there is a lead-lag relationship between Ali online shopping price index(SPI) and the official consumer price index(CPI) compiled based on traditional methods.The results are shown as follows: As far as clothing, transportation and food are concerned, the traditional CPI lags behind the online price index in terms of time, while the traditional CPI leads the online price index in terms of education sub-index. The two indices have a matching period of 10.7 months, and the price index of Ali online shopping is 1.22 months ahead of the traditional CPI. Although Ali online shopping price index can not completely replace the traditional CPI, there exists a cycle matching with the traditional CPI index, and Ali online shopping price index to the traditional CPI has a supplementary and predictive role to a certain extent.

关 键 词：阿里网购价格指数 CPI 交叉谱分析 领先滞后关系 

分 类 号：C813[社会学—统计学] F064.1