人口对中国经济增长的影响研究--基于R&D模型、RR模型和Leslie模型的讨论  

The Impact of Population on China Economic Growth --Based on Analysis of R&D Model,RR Model and Leslie Model

作　　者：崔俊富[1] 苗建军[1] 崔伟 Cui Junfu;Miao Jianjun;Cui Wei(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China;Shenzhen Guoyu Research Institute of Future Education,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016 [2]深圳国育未来教育科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2020年第8期89-94,共6页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“国家级城市群非期望产出的测度及其消减路径研究”(项目编号:16BGL210);中国博士后科学基金资助项目“大数据时代的经济学研究范式”(项目编号:2019M651830)。

摘　　要：1978年以来,中国经济高速增长,一跃成为世界第二大经济体,人口红利是中国经济保持长期平稳增长的重要因素。随着时间的持续推进,未成年人口占比下降、老年人口占比上升的不利方面逐渐显现出来,中国的人口红利正在消失。本文使用研发与增长模型和岭回归模型研究了人口对经济增长的重要作用,并使用Leslie模型对中国未来的人口进行了预测,研究发现,按照目前的趋势,中国的老龄化会越来越严重,人口的结构问题将对中国经济增长产生巨大影响,未来应当采取适度鼓励人口增长、充分发挥劳动人口的作用、实施积极老龄化策略、全面提高人口素质等措施。Since 1978,China economy has grown rapidly and has become the world second largest economy.The demographic dividend is an important factor for China long-term stable growth.As time continues to advance,the unfavorable aspect of the decline in the proportion of minors and the increase in the proportion of the elderly population has gradually emerged.China demographic dividend is disappearing.This paper uses the research and development model and ridge regression model to study the important role of population in economic growth,and uses the leslie model to predict China future population.The study finds that,according to the current trend,China aging will become more and more serious,and the population structural problems will have a huge impact on China economic growth.In the future,measures should be taken,such as appropriately encourage population growth,give full play to the role of the working population,implement an active aging strategy,and comprehensively improve the quality of the population.

关 键 词：研发与增长模型 岭回归模型 Leslie模型 人口红利 经济增长 人口结构 

分 类 号：F061.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F124