COVID-19湖北省“封省”月度经济损失评估研究  

Monthly Economic Losses Assessment Method of Hubei Province after Lockdown Against COVID-19

作　　者：游士兵[1] 王恒丽 张苗 徐小婷 YOU Shi-bing;WANG Heng-li;ZHANG Miao;XU Xiao-ting(School of Economic and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国软科学》2020年第6期145-158,173,共15页China Soft Science

摘　　要：为控制COVID-19疫情蔓延,湖北省各地采取了"封城"措施,形成了"封省"态势。本文通过构建"封省"月度经济损失评估体系,对湖北省"封省"所造成的微观和中观月度经济损失进行了评估。微观评估的是民众因感染COVID-19所造成的健康损失,中观评估是以交通运输、仓储和邮政业与住宿和餐饮业以及文化、体育和娱乐业作为直接受损行业评估了其因"封省"造成的直接经济损失,进而利用投入产出关系评估其对其他行业的间接经济损失。评估结果表明,因"封省"对湖北省的经济发展有一定的影响,但若疫情控制得当,总体经济损失是可控的。实证分析表明:"封省"一个月,居民直接健康月度经济损失为37.7868亿元;交通运输、仓储与邮政业与住宿和餐饮业以及文化、体育和娱乐业直接经济损失分别为275.7967985亿元、179.035亿元和14.726亿元,对其他行业的月度间接经济总损失为654.684亿元;月度部分综合经济损失为1162.028亿元。食品和烟草,石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品,交通运输、仓储和邮政,农林牧渔产品和服务,电力、热力的生产和供应,石油和天然气开采产品,金融等行业的间接影响明显要大于其他行业。本文对评估方法、疫后政策建议进行了必要的说明和讨论。To control the Spread of COVID-19, cities in Hubei province have implemented prevention and control measures including the unprecedented "lockdown". This paper evaluates the first monthly micro-economic losses and medium-economic losses due to Hubei’s lockdown through using the Susceptible Infected Recovered Model, the Disease-Cost model and the Input-Output model. Micro-evaluation assesses the losses to human health due to COVID-19 infection while the medium-evaluation is to take the transport, storage and post, accommodation, food and beverage services, culture, sports and entertainment industries as the directly-affected industries to evaluate the direct or indirect economic losses of industries due to Hubei’s lockdown, and then to evaluate the indirect economic loss to other industries. Our findings reveal that the lockdown have huge negative impact on the economy in Hubei both directly and indirectly. However, the total economic losses are at a controllable level if effective measures are taken to combat COVID-19. The direct health loss is estimated to be 3.77868 billion yuan(CNY), and the direct economic losses in transport, storage and post industry, accommodation, food and beverage services industry, culture, sports and entertainment industry reach 27.57968 billion yuan, 17.9035 billion yuan, 1.4726 billion yuan, respectively. The indirect economic losses of other industries add up to 65.4684 billion yuan, and the total monthly economic losses during the lockdown reach 116.2028 billion yuan. The empirical analysis reveals the lock down has a significant impact on manufacture of food and tobacco industry, manufacture of refined petroleum, coke products, processing of nuclear fuel industry, transport, storage and post industry, farming, forestry, animal production and fishery industry, production and supply of electricity and steam industry, extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas industry and Finance industry than on other industries. This paper provides the necessary explanation and discussion o

关 键 词：COVID-19 湖北省“封省” 成本与IO模型 月度经济损失评估 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]