PPP轨道交通项目动态基准收益率研究  

Research on Dynamic Benchmark Rate of Return of PPP Rail Transit Project

作　　者：易欣 喻南 施晶晶 邱慧 YI Xin;YU Nan;SHI Jingjing;QIU Hui(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;School of Landscape Architecture,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]中南林业科技大学风景园林学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《隧道建设（中英文）》2020年第7期964-971,共8页Tunnel Construction

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目(2018JJ2682);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(17C1685);湖南省社会科学基金项目(19YBA376)。

摘　　要：为解决PPP轨道交通项目前期决策时基准收益率的问题,根据轨道交通网络效应带来的运营成本和客流变化特点,构建相应的PPP轨道交通项目动态基准收益率模型。首先,介绍不同决策时机的概念,采用Vague集理论改进资本资产定价模型;其次,利用影响PPP轨道交通项目基准收益率的风险因素调查数据,基于结构方程模型明确各风险因素的权重,修正资本资产定价模型中的风险系数;最后,以长沙市轨道交通6号线PPP项目为例验证模型的有效性。经研究得出政府应根据不同决策时机合理地选择PPP轨道交通项目基准收益率,使之既能吸引社会资本参与又能维护项目的公共利益的结论。A rational benchmark rate of return in public-private partnership(PPP)rail transit project is an urgency at present.Hence,a dynamic benchmark rate of return model of PPP rail transit project is constructed based on the operation cost and passenger flow varying characteristics brought by rail transit network effect.Firstly,the concepts of different decision-making timing are introduced,and the capital asset pricing model(CAPM)is improved by Vague set theory.And then,the weight of each risk factor that affects the benchmark rate of return of PPP rail transit project is assigned and the risk coefficient of CAPM is revised based on the investigation data of risk factors and the structural equation model.Finally,the model is applied to the PPP project of Changsha Rail Transit Line 6,and the applicable results indicate that the model is feasible.It is concluded that the benchmark rate of return of PPP rail transit project should be rationally selected according to different decision-making opportunities so as to attract the participation of social capital and protect the public interest of the project.

关 键 词：PPP轨道交通项目 动态基准收益率 改进资本资产定价模型 VAGUE集 

分 类 号：U45[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]