区域水电市场价格预测模型研究  

Research on Regional Hydropower Market Price Forecasting Model

作　　者：赵珊霈 ZHAO Shan-pei(POWERCHINA Beijing Engineering Corporation Limited,Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司,北京100024

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2020年第8期5-9,共5页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：为了应对水电市场中有关电价预测的资料少、难以预测的问题,提出混合蛙跳-分数阶灰色模型对水电市场中的电价进行预测。根据收集到的数据,以“历史数据拟合最好”为目标函数,采用混合蛙跳算法求得阶数,结合分数阶反向累加灰色模型对研究区的水电电价进行预测。根据研究区数据,进行模型验证,并与人工神经网络模型、IGM(0,N)模型进行比较。结果表明,本文模型具有一定合理性,可为水电电力价格预测研究提供一定参考。In order to cope with the problem of lack of electricity price information in the hydropower market,it is difficult to predict.This paper proposes a particle swarm-fractional gray model to predict the electricity price in the hydropower market.According to the collected data,the best fit of the training data is the objective function,and the particle swarm algorithm is used to obtain the order,and the fractional order gray model is used to predict the hydropower price in the study area.Based on the data from the study area,the model verification was performed.And compared with multiple linear regression model and time-varying parameter gray-order model.The results show that the model in this paper has a certain rationality,which can provide a certain reference for hydropower price prediction research.

关 键 词：混合蛙跳算法 分数阶反向累加灰色模型 水电市场 电价预测 

分 类 号：F4[经济管理—产业经济]