化学品运输后续航次风险评估转移矩阵及应用  

Risk assessment transfer matrix and its application for subsequent voyage of chemical transport

作　　者：胡聿理 张方伟[1] HU Yuli;ZHANG Fangwei(College of Transport and Communication,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《扬州大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期74-78,共5页Journal of Yangzhou University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51508319).

摘　　要：为降低化学品船运过程中的运输风险、提升接运决策效率,结合项目风险管理理论,对经典层次分析法进行改进,提出三参数风险评估转移矩阵,并给出转移矩阵和风险评估公式的实用案例.通过该矩阵可以实现主客观决策信息的有效融合,以解决动态环境下的危险品运输后续航次风险评估问题.In order to reduce transportation risk and improve the efficiency of the transport acceptance decision in the chemical shipping process,combined with the project risk management theory,the classic analytic hierarchy process is improved,and a three-parameter risk assessment transfer matrix is proposed.The practical case of transfer matrix and risk assessment is given.This matrix can realize the effective fusion of subjective and objective decision-making information to solve the risk assessment of dangerous cargoes transportation under dynamic environment.

关 键 词：运输安全 风险管理 转移矩阵 层次分析法 

分 类 号：U695.2[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]