情报信号视阈下弱信号识别关键成功因素研究  

Research on Critical Success Factors of Weak Signal Identification from the Viewpoint of Intelligence Signal

作　　者：董尹[1] 刘千里[2] 唐文之 Dong Yin;Liu Qianli;Tang Wenzhi(School of Economics and Management Hefei University,Hefei Anhui 230601;School of Information Management Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210023)

机构地区：[1]合肥学院经济与管理学院,安徽合肥230601 [2]南京大学信息管理学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《情报探索》2020年第8期1-10,共10页Information Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“弱信号生命周期视角下的供应链风险信号识别研究”(项目编号:71603069);国家社科基金青年项目“意义构建视野下安全情报的弱信号研究”(项目编号:15CTQ032);国家自然科学基金青年项目“多种低碳融资方式下供应链减排运作与契约协调机制研究”(项目编号:7194041)成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]探寻成功实施弱信号识别的关键因素。[方法/过程]在已有文献和理论基础上形成概念模型和假设,提出认知背景、识别方法、团队协作和信任4个关键成功因素。以企业供应链风险领域为样本,进行预测试和正式测试两阶段的实证研究。在预测试阶段,借助统计方法和SPSS(21.0.0.0)软件检验问卷的效度和信度;在正式测试阶段,运用基于偏最小二乘算法的结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)和SmartPLS(3.2.8版本)软件进行模型评估。[结果/结论]由概念模型构造的PLS-SEM内、外模型均通过评估,整体上具有中等预测水平。在企业供应链风险领域,面向四个关键成功因素的假设均获得验证支持,这些因素对弱信号识别有着积极的正向影响。[Purpose/significance]The paper is to explore the critical factors for successfully identifying weak signals.[Method/process]The paper forms a conceptual model and hypotheses based on existing literature and theory and proposes four critical success factors including cognitive background identification method teamwork and trust.Taking enterprise supply chain risk field as the sample the paper carries out an empirical study in two stages of predictive test and formal test.In the stage of predictive test it verifies the validity and reliability of the questionnaire by statistical method and SPSS(21.0.0.0)software;in the stage of formal test it evaluates the model by Partial Least Square Algorithm-based Structural Equation Model(PLS-SEM)and SmartPLS(version 3.2.8)software.[Result/conclusion]The PLS-SEM internal and external models constructed by the conceptual model pass the evaluation and have a medium level of prediction.In the field of enterprise supply chain risk hypotheses for the four critical success factors are supported by validation and these factors have positive effects on weak signal identification.

关 键 词：弱信号识别 情报信号 关键成功因素 实证研究 偏最小二乘法 

分 类 号：G352[文化科学—情报学]