过度自信对复杂产品风险管理的双重影响  

The Dual Impact of Overconfidence on the Risk Management of Complex Products and Systems

作　　者：王经略[1] 周国华[1] WANG Jinglve;ZHOU Guohua(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2020年第3期50-58,共9页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(15AZD057)。

摘　　要：把风险管理工作中过度自信的表现形式分为高估主体效应和低估客体效应两种,通过运用委托代理模型,讨论了两种效应对复杂产品风险管理工作的影响。研究发现:对风险厌恶的风险管理代理公司,过度自信的两种效应对代理公司的最优努力水平、委托公司的最优分配系数以及最优期望收益均有正向的影响作用;对风险中性的风险管理代理公司,高估主体效应对代理公司的最优努力水平以及委托公司的期望收益有正向影响作用,但低估客体效应并不会对代理公司行为以及委托公司的收益造成影响;对于风险喜好的风险管理代理公司,低估客体效应对代理公司的最优努力水平和委托公司的最优分配系数均有负向的影响作用。The manifestations of overconfidence were divided into subject overestimate and object underestimate. By using the principal-agent model, two effects of overconfidence on the risk management of complex products were discussed. It is found that for a risk-averse agent company,these two effects have positive impact on the agent company’s optimal effort level,the client company’s optimal incentive coefficient and expected return;for a risk-neutral agent company,overestimating the subject effect has a positive effect on the agent company’s optimal effort level and the client company’s expected return,underestimating the object does not affect anyone of them;for a risk seeking agent company,underestimating the object effect has negative impacts on the agent company’s optimal effort level and the client company’s optimal incentivecoefficient.

关 键 词：过度自信 复杂产品 风险管理 委托代理 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济] F224