人口老龄化对区域产业结构升级溢出效应研究--基于居民消费结构变迁  

Regional Study on the Spillover Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading of Population Aging-- Based on the Change of Residents’ Consumption Structure

作　　者：聂高辉[1] 严然 Nie Gaohui;Yan Ran(School of information management,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学信息管理学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《重庆社会科学》2020年第7期20-34,共15页Chongqing Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国人口老龄化的产业结构升级溢出效应研究”(17BJY077)。

摘　　要：研究人口老龄化、居民消费结构和产业结构三者的关系及其在我国不同区域的表现,可以为各地政府制定有效经济政策提供现实依据。人口老龄化可能会以居民消费结构为中介对产业结构的升级产生溢出效应,但这种影响往往被人忽略。文章选用30个省份2000-2016年省际面板数据就居民消费结构的传导作用进行检验,发现人口老龄化会以居住消费、医疗保健消费和家庭设备消费为中介对产业结构优化产生溢出效应,且溢出效应的大小和传导路径呈现出了明显的区域性特征。最后通过比较分析各区域溢出效应差异,提出政策建议。Clarifying the relationshipsamong population aging, resident consumption pattern and industrial structure,as well as grasping its representation across different regions in China,can serve as a reference for local governments to devise workable economic policies. Population aging may exert a spillover effect on industrial structure upgrading, with the residents’ consumption pattern playing the mediating role. However, such impact is often neglected. This paper tests the mediating role of residents’ consumption pattern based on the inter-provincial panel data of 30 provinces between 2000 and 2016.The findings suggest the housing consumption, health care consumption, and home appliance consumption play the mediating role in the spillover effect of population aging on industrial structure optimization. The extent and mediating path of the spillover effect differ significantly among regions.Policy suggestions are proposed by comparing the regional difference in the spillover effect.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 居民消费结构 产业结构 sobel检验 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]