基于灰度预测的灾难医学救援培训研究  

Research on Disaster Rescue Training Based on Gray Prediction

作　　者：李雪菁[1,3] 陈瑛[1] 韩朝阳[1] 窦粲灿 汤璐佳[2] 潘曙明[2] LI Xuejing;CHEN Ying;HAN Zhaoyang;DOU Cancan;TANG Lujia;PAN Shuming(College of Information Science and Technology,Sanda University,Shanghai 201209;Emergency Medicine,Xinhua Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine,Shanghai 200092;School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200072)

机构地区：[1]上海杉达学院信息科学与技术学院,上海201209 [2]上海交通大学医学院附属新华医院急诊医学科,上海200092 [3]上海大学机电工程与自动化学院,上海200072

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2020年第6期1281-1285,共5页Computer & Digital Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:61233010);上海杉达学院数据工程应用科研创新团队(编号:A021306.18.004);上海高校一流本科建设引领计划项目;第五批上海市属高校应用型本科试点专业建设项目资助。

摘　　要：基于我国灾难医学发展现状,以NDLS灾难医学救援培训情况为例,系统分析了培训的效果。根据分析结果可知,当前NDLS培训课程适合我国灾难医学培训现状。将灰度理论应用到学员培训效果的中长期走势预测研究中,以制订更科学、更规范的灾难救援培训课程体系。根据所构建的灰度模型预测的课前测试平均分数的发展系数为0.04,课后测试平均分数的发展系数为0.057。预测结果表明当前的课程培训效果良好,具有较强的科学性、实用性和操作性。预测的结果可以作为目前课程进一步优化的依据,同时研究结果可以为相关部门提供参考依据,用于类似培训课程体系的构建。Based on the development status of disaster medicine in China,the training effect of disaster medical rescue in NDLS is analyzed systematically. According to the analysis results,the current NDLS training course is suitable for the current situation of disaster medicine training in China. In order to establish a more scientific and standardized disaster relief training curriculum system,the gray theory is applied to the study of long-term trend prediction of trainees’ training effect. According to the grey scale model,the development coefficient of the average pre-class test score is 0.04,and the development coefficient of the average post-class test score is 0.057. The results show that the current curriculum training effect is good and it has a strong scientificity,practicability and operability. The prediction results can be used as the basis for further optimization of the current curriculum. At the same time,the research results can provide reference for relevant departments and build similar training courses.

关 键 词：灰度模型 灾难医学 预测 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]