基于Agent的多代数码产品扩散仿真研究  

Simulation Reach on Multi-Generation Digital Product Diffusion Based on Agent

作　　者：乔健[1] 夏婧雯 王攀 Qiao Jian;Xia Jingwen;Wang Pan(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2020年第7期1393-1401,共9页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71971171);陕西省自然科学基金(2018JM7001);陕西省社会科学基金(13Q107);西北工业大学研究生创意创新种子基金(ZZ2019240)。

摘　　要：数码产品具有多代并存扩散的特点,多代产品扩散模型是研究其扩散规律的重要工具,但现有模型忽略了一些显著影响扩散过程的产品、消费者和环境因素。采用ABMS、模糊推理、复杂网络和效用理论,提出一种考虑了这些因素的多代数码产品扩散模型。实验结果显示,该模型能很好地再现iPhone手机的扩散过程,说明历史数据充分时其模拟/预测能力良好,可作为数码产品营销分析与决策的辅助工具。Digital products have the characteristics of multi-generation coexistence and diffusion,and the multi-generation product diffusion model is an important tool to study it.The existing models ignores some factors of the product,consumer and environment that significantly affect the diffusion process.A multi-generation digital product diffusion model is proposed by using the ABMS,fuzzy inference,complex network and utility theories.The experiment results show that the model can playback the diffusion process of iPhones,which indicates that the model has a good simulation/prediction capability when the historical data is sufficient,and can be a marketing analysis and decision-making tool for digital products.

关 键 词：产品扩散 数码产品 多代 ABMS 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]