基于图模型矩阵理论的决策者心理行为特征冲突稳定性  

Conflict stability of decision-makers’psychological behavior characteristics based on matrix representation of solution concepts

作　　者：赵金帅[1,2] 徐海燕 杨保华[3] ZHAO Jin-shuai;XU Hai-yan;YANG Bao-hua(College of Computer Science and Technology,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;Business School,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学计算机科学与技术学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106 [3]江苏师范大学商学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《控制与决策》2020年第7期1730-1740,共11页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71471087,71071076,71301064,61673209);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(18YJA630128);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2019SJA0922)。

摘　　要：决策者的心理行为特征对冲突的演化路径与最终结局具有重要的影响.为了描述冲突中决策者的心理行为特征,方便考虑决策者心理行为特征冲突的求解和决策支持系统中相关模块的开发,基于图模型现有研究框架,对决策者面对风险时所表现的3种心理行为特征(攻击型、保守型和兼顾型)的稳定性理论进行研究.首先,利用矩阵理论定义了决策者3种心理行为特征下的可达矩阵;然后,为便于考虑决策者心理行为特征稳定解的计算,分别定义了决策者3种心理行为特征的一步稳定和考虑冲突对手反击的两步稳定计算的矩阵表达式;最后,利用图模型框架下考虑决策者心理行为特征的稳定性理论分析了环境污染冲突的均衡结局,从而给出冲突解决方案.案例分析结果表明,该理论是有效合理的.The psychological behavior characteristic(PBC)of decision makers plays an important role in the evolutionary path and ultimate outcome of conflict.In order to describe the PBC of decision makers(DMs)in conflict,the stability theory is studied which considers DM’s aggressive,conservative and balanced behaviors when facing risks based on the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution.Firstly,the reachable matrices are defined for the three PBCs.Then,the matrix representation for one and two-step stabilities are developed,respectively,for the stability or equilibrium calculation of DMs having different PBCs.This theory can facilitate the solution of the conflict when considering DM’s PBCs and the development of the relevant module in decision support systems.Finally,the equilibrium outcome of environmental pollution conflict is analyzed by using the stability theory which considers the PBC of DM’s under the framework of graph model.The results show that the proposed theory is effective and reasonable.

关 键 词：冲突分析图模型 心理行为特征 稳定性分析 环境污染冲突 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学] C941[自然科学总论—系统科学]