网络借贷平台风险:宏观驱动因素与监管  

Risk of Online Lending Marketplace:Macro Factors and Regulation

作　　者：江嘉骏 高铭 卢瑞昌 JIANG Jiajun;GAO Ming;LU Ruichang(School of Economics,Fudan University;State Grid Corporation of China;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]国家电网有限公司,北京100031 [3]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《金融研究》2020年第6期152-170,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673007,71903005);上海哲学社会科学规划课题(2018EJB005)的资助。

摘　　要：本文尝试从网贷平台风险的角度,讨论宏观驱动因素和监管政策对网络借贷市场的影响。首先,利用我国网贷市场有代表性的651家平台近两年的日度交易数据,我们发现网贷平台停业风险与增长速度呈负向关系。进一步分析平台增长背后的宏观驱动因素,我们发现互联网技术供给和普惠金融需求共同影响行业发展,而平台增速低于预期将增大停业风险。其次,我们发现监管政策的出台有效降低了平台停业风险,并且降低了平台正常经营对高增长的依赖。但监管政策对于高风险省份的作用弱于或不显著区别于低风险省份,表明监管效果的针对性需要加强。本文对进一步完善网贷行业监管政策及产业政策有参考意义。Online peer-to-peer lending in China has rapidly developed in recent years. The emergence of the online lending marketplace should in theory meet the financing needs of individuals and small and micro enterprises and has created a new type of risky asset. This newly developed financial market is complementary to the traditional financial system and contributes to inclusive finance. However, in practice, inadequate regulation means that many platforms have experienced defaults and failures. These industry anomalies have led to the necessity of such an online lending market being questioned. Thus, we address two important questions: 1) whether the rapid development of the online lending market is economically reasonable;and 2) if the introduction of regulatory measures can promote the healthy development of the industry.The emergence of online lending reflects both the development of Internet technology and the demands of consumers for microloan services. Rapid growth in the online lending market is therefore reasonable if these macro factors have an effect, but excessive development will lead to greater default risks for high-growth platforms. We use daily transaction data from 651 nationwide online lending platforms in our empirical analysis.First, we find that the higher the growth rate of the platform, the lower the future risk of default or shutdown. Second, we further examine the factors influencing the growth of online lending platforms. We find that technology supply and inclusive finance demand have a significant impact on growth. Using the Internet penetration rate as a measure of technology supply, we find that the growth rate is higher in provinces with greater Internet penetration. Technological progress has lowered the barriers to entry in the online lending industry, thereby intensifying competition. Platforms in provinces with more dispersed transaction volume exhibit a faster growth rate. Using the number of microfinance institutions per capita to measure financial accessibility, we find that poore

关 键 词：网络借贷平台 违约风险 金融监管 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F832.4