基于新安江模型的台风期间福州山区水库入库洪水预报  

Flood forecasting for reservoirs in Fuzhou mountainous area based on Xin’anjiang Model during typhoon invasion

作　　者：苑瑞芳 廖卫红[2] 康爱卿[2] 雷晓辉[2] 殷兆凯 YUAN Ruifang;LIAO Weihong;KANG Aiqing;LEI Xiaohui;YIN Zhaokai(School of Water Resources and Environment,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院,北京100083 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300350

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2020年第3期24-29,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407701)。

摘　　要：为对台风期间福州市区的洪涝灾害进行及时预警,采用新安江模型,建立了一套适用于台风期的福州市山区水库的入库洪水预报模型。由于水库资料较难获取,采用赤桥站的降雨径流资料对新安江模型参数进行了率定及验证,并将率定后的参数移植到各个水库进行验证。采用赤桥流域2007-2015年6场台风引发的洪水进行了率定模拟计算,采用2016年的2场台风引发的洪水进行验证模拟计算,将得到的参数移植到各水库子流域,运用八一水库及登云水库的降雨资料及由水库水位和水库泄流过程资料反推得到的同时段的入库流量资料,对新安江模型进行验证。结果表明:新安江模型在赤桥流域具有适用性,且对于雨型单一的降雨模拟效果良好。将赤桥流域率定得到的新安江模型参数移植到其他水库流域进行水库入库洪水预报的方法具有一定的可行性,可收集充分的资料进一步进行验证。In order to timely forecast urban floods in Fuzhou City caused by typhoons,we used Xin’anjiang Model to establish a flood forecasting model for the reservoirs in Fuzhou mountainous area during typhoon invasion.Because it was difficult to obtain the data of these reservoirs,the parameters of the Xin’anjiang Model were calibrated and validated by the rainfall and runoff data of Chiqiao station,and then transplanted to each reservoir sub-basin for validation.We used six floods caused by typhoons in Chiqiao basin from 2007 to 2015 to carry out the calibration calculation and two in 2016 to validate the calculation results.The model parameters obtained were then transplanted to each reservoir sub-basin.Meanwhile,the inflow data of the same period deduced from the precipitation data,water level and discharge process data of Bayi Reservoir and Dengyun Reservoir was adopted to validate the Xin’anjiang Model.The results indicate that Xin’anjiang Model is applicable to Chiqiao Basin,and it works well for single peak rainfall simulations.The method of transplanting the parameters of Xin’anjiang Model obtained from the Chiqiao Basin to other reservoir sub-basins for flood forecasting is feasible,and it can be further verified by pending sufficient data.

关 键 词：新安江模型 台风 入库洪水预报 参数移植 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]