基于正态云模型的人水和谐度评价  

Human-water harmony evaluation based on normal cloud model

作　　者：杨丹 唐德善[1] 周祎 YANG Dan;TANG Deshan;ZHOU Yi(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2020年第3期53-58,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405805-04)。

摘　　要：为综合评价区域人水和谐度,从水系统健康、人文系统发展、人水系统相互协调3个方面选取16项指标构建区域人水和谐度评价体系,确定评价指标分级标准,建立基于正态云的人水和谐度评价模型;模型采用博弈论法确定指标综合权重,利用正向云发生器确定指标隶属度,通过最大隶属度原则判断和谐度等级。采用该模型评价宿迁市2013-2017年人水和谐度,评价结果显示宿迁市历年人水和谐度总体呈上升趋势,部分不和谐指标存在较大的提升空间,与其实际情况相符,表明所建立的评价模型合理可行。评价结果及相关建议有助于进一步协调宿迁市人水关系。In order to comprehensively evaluate the state of regional human-water harmony,16 indicators are selected from three aspects,which are human system development,water system health and human-water system coordination,to construct an evaluation system.Then a series of evaluation index grading criteria are determined to establish a human-water harmony evaluation model based on normal cloud.This model uses game theory to determine the individual comprehensive weight of each indicator,and normal cloud generator to determine the indicator membership,based on which the harmony level of the indicator is decided according to the principle of maximum membership.We adopted this model to evaluate the human-water harmony in Suqian City from 2013 to 2017.The evaluation results show that the overall human-water harmony in Suqian City is on the rise,and some disharmonious indicators have great potentials for improvement.These foundings are consistent with the actual situation,indicating that the propcsed evaluation model is applicable.At the same time,the evaluation results and related suggestions can help Suqian City further coordinate the relationship between human and water.

关 键 词：人水和谐 正态云模型 博弈论 熵权 宿迁市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]